Race 1A

george-warren-smith

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Ethan Stark 8.6% 8.4% 11.8% 13.4% 11.1% 11.1% 12.8% 10.6% 7.2% 3.3% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0%
Charles Sinks 26.0% 23.0% 18.8% 10.7% 9.9% 6.0% 3.0% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nick Sertl 22.3% 20.5% 16.2% 14.4% 12.2% 7.4% 3.9% 1.9% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sarah Fuller 3.5% 4.6% 5.6% 6.4% 9.1% 9.8% 11.1% 14.2% 16.1% 11.2% 6.9% 1.2% 0.3%
Scott Booth 7.8% 9.4% 10.6% 10.7% 10.7% 10.7% 13.3% 10.4% 9.0% 5.9% 1.1% 0.2% 0.2%
Nicholas Arabia 8.1% 8.8% 8.9% 10.9% 12.3% 11.9% 13.2% 10.8% 8.9% 4.0% 1.8% 0.4% 0.0%
Myles Everett 3.9% 2.9% 4.2% 5.2% 7.5% 6.5% 8.3% 13.6% 17.8% 15.4% 10.8% 3.4% 0.5%
Rolfe Glover 8.1% 9.3% 9.2% 11.9% 10.5% 13.8% 13.6% 11.1% 7.1% 3.5% 1.5% 0.4% 0.0%
Samuel Cushing 9.2% 11.0% 11.2% 11.1% 11.3% 14.6% 9.7% 9.4% 7.7% 3.6% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0%
Stephanie Clancy 0.8% 0.8% 1.5% 2.2% 1.8% 2.9% 3.2% 4.8% 7.4% 17.1% 23.4% 25.1% 9.0%
Brendan Sleight 0.7% 0.5% 0.7% 1.1% 1.6% 2.1% 3.2% 5.6% 8.2% 14.9% 22.8% 26.6% 12.0%
Anthony Lowther 0.7% 0.7% 1.1% 1.9% 2.0% 2.3% 4.0% 4.9% 6.7% 16.6% 23.2% 25.8% 10.1%
Christine Reighley 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.9% 0.7% 0.9% 2.3% 4.1% 6.2% 16.3% 67.9%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.