Race 9A

george-warren-smith

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Charles Sinks 27.3% 20.8% 16.6% 13.6% 10.2% 5.7% 3.4% 1.2% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nick Sertl 23.4% 20.2% 16.4% 14.1% 11.4% 7.0% 4.3% 1.7% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Ethan Stark 6.7% 10.0% 12.6% 11.3% 11.9% 13.1% 13.6% 9.3% 6.8% 3.5% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0%
Samuel Cushing 9.0% 10.3% 10.2% 13.8% 13.2% 10.9% 10.2% 11.5% 6.7% 3.2% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0%
Rolfe Glover 9.0% 9.7% 9.8% 11.4% 11.6% 11.2% 12.2% 11.8% 7.7% 4.2% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Myles Everett 2.8% 2.8% 4.5% 5.1% 7.2% 8.2% 8.8% 12.5% 18.6% 15.1% 9.9% 4.3% 0.2%
Nicholas Arabia 8.4% 10.4% 9.6% 8.4% 11.9% 13.0% 11.9% 10.5% 9.2% 4.4% 2.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Scott Booth 7.7% 8.1% 10.1% 10.5% 11.2% 13.4% 12.8% 11.7% 8.3% 4.2% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Sarah Fuller 3.8% 5.0% 6.1% 7.1% 5.7% 9.7% 11.7% 16.0% 13.9% 13.5% 5.8% 1.3% 0.4%
Anthony Lowther 0.5% 1.1% 2.0% 1.5% 1.9% 2.9% 3.6% 3.4% 9.2% 14.6% 24.9% 24.6% 9.8%
Stephanie Clancy 0.7% 1.0% 0.8% 1.6% 2.1% 2.8% 3.9% 5.3% 8.6% 18.2% 25.2% 21.0% 8.8%
Brendan Sleight 0.5% 0.4% 1.1% 1.5% 1.3% 1.8% 2.7% 4.2% 7.2% 13.8% 21.0% 31.1% 13.4%
Christine Reighley 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.9% 0.9% 1.8% 4.7% 6.6% 16.4% 67.3%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.