Race 12A

george-warren-smith

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

15.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Nick Sertl 22.0% 21.0% 18.4% 12.9% 10.6% 6.8% 4.8% 1.8% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Nicholas Arabia 6.9% 8.9% 9.8% 11.2% 12.0% 12.1% 13.6% 11.8% 9.2% 3.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0%
Rolfe Glover 7.4% 7.8% 11.7% 10.9% 12.5% 13.0% 11.8% 10.9% 9.6% 3.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
Charles Sinks 26.6% 22.3% 16.7% 14.4% 8.6% 6.0% 2.5% 2.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Myles Everett 3.7% 3.4% 3.6% 5.3% 7.7% 8.6% 8.4% 13.0% 17.4% 19.1% 8.0% 1.8% 0.0%
Scott Booth 7.2% 9.5% 9.6% 12.1% 11.2% 12.2% 13.2% 10.3% 9.4% 4.0% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Stephanie Clancy 1.2% 1.0% 1.6% 1.9% 2.1% 3.0% 2.7% 7.1% 9.1% 20.8% 34.4% 13.2% 1.9%
Ethan Stark 9.2% 9.8% 12.0% 10.1% 12.2% 13.0% 13.3% 11.1% 6.3% 2.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Samuel Cushing 9.0% 11.2% 9.4% 12.2% 13.8% 11.1% 11.9% 10.4% 7.2% 3.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0%
Sarah Fuller 5.7% 3.8% 5.7% 7.7% 7.1% 10.1% 12.4% 13.9% 16.8% 11.2% 4.6% 1.0% 0.0%
Anthony Lowther 0.8% 0.8% 0.9% 1.2% 1.7% 3.7% 4.5% 5.7% 9.4% 22.6% 32.7% 13.2% 2.8%
Christine Reighley 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.7% 1.4% 2.2% 6.2% 11.1% 43.1% 33.7%
Emily Chase 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.6% 1.7% 2.5% 5.8% 26.8% 61.6%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.