Race 13A

george-warren-smith

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Charles Sinks 26.6% 22.0% 17.6% 13.2% 10.0% 5.3% 3.3% 1.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Nicholas Arabia 8.0% 8.5% 10.1% 9.2% 14.4% 12.2% 12.6% 12.4% 7.9% 3.6% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sarah Fuller 3.4% 3.7% 6.5% 7.6% 9.4% 7.6% 12.0% 16.2% 17.3% 12.3% 3.2% 0.8% 0.0%
Rolfe Glover 8.4% 7.7% 9.4% 12.1% 12.9% 12.1% 11.4% 13.3% 7.9% 3.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0%
Scott Booth 9.0% 8.8% 9.1% 11.4% 10.7% 13.9% 12.9% 11.0% 9.0% 3.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
Myles Everett 2.0% 4.3% 4.3% 5.6% 6.2% 8.4% 9.4% 13.5% 20.2% 16.0% 8.2% 1.8% 0.1%
Nick Sertl 23.6% 22.2% 15.4% 14.7% 8.6% 7.4% 5.1% 1.7% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Samuel Cushing 9.5% 10.5% 13.0% 11.1% 10.6% 14.5% 12.8% 10.8% 3.9% 2.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Ethan Stark 8.2% 9.8% 10.9% 11.7% 12.5% 13.3% 12.2% 9.3% 7.9% 3.2% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Anthony Lowther 0.4% 1.1% 1.9% 1.6% 2.5% 2.3% 3.4% 3.8% 10.3% 22.6% 31.3% 15.7% 3.1%
Christine Reighley 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.6% 0.5% 0.8% 2.2% 6.8% 15.8% 42.5% 29.7%
Stephanie Clancy 0.6% 1.1% 1.4% 1.5% 1.7% 2.3% 4.1% 5.6% 9.8% 21.8% 31.3% 15.7% 3.1%
Emily Chase 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.5% 1.6% 3.4% 6.4% 23.0% 64.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.