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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston3.64+9.20vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College4.06+6.41vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.79+6.55vs Predicted
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4Yale University4.19+3.55vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont3.62+4.98vs Predicted
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6Boston University4.07+2.07vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy3.66+2.89vs Predicted
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8Salve Regina University3.92+0.73vs Predicted
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9Georgetown University3.77+0.45vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University3.07+2.63vs Predicted
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11Brown University4.30-3.70vs Predicted
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12Eckerd College2.90+1.32vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College3.66-3.24vs Predicted
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14Boston College3.50-3.73vs Predicted
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15Tufts University3.70-5.34vs Predicted
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16University of Rhode Island3.62-5.88vs Predicted
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17St. Mary's College of Maryland3.80-7.54vs Predicted
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18Harvard University4.36-11.32vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.2College of Charleston3.640.0%1st Place
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8.41Dartmouth College4.060.1%1st Place
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9.55Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.790.1%1st Place
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7.55Yale University4.190.1%1st Place
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9.98University of Vermont3.620.1%1st Place
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8.07Boston University4.070.1%1st Place
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9.89U. S. Naval Academy3.660.1%1st Place
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8.73Salve Regina University3.920.1%1st Place
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9.45Georgetown University3.770.0%1st Place
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12.63Roger Williams University3.070.0%1st Place
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7.3Brown University4.300.1%1st Place
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13.32Eckerd College2.900.0%1st Place
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9.76Connecticut College3.660.1%1st Place
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10.27Boston College3.500.0%1st Place
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9.66Tufts University3.700.1%1st Place
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10.12University of Rhode Island3.620.0%1st Place
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9.46St. Mary's College of Maryland3.800.1%1st Place
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6.68Harvard University4.360.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Mace | 4.7% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 5.5% |
| Sam Williams | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.1% |
| Philip Crain | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 2.8% |
| Joseph Morris | 9.2% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.4% |
| Coleman Bowen | 5.0% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 5.3% |
| Ben Greenfield | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 2.0% |
| Jason Carminati | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 4.8% |
| Peter Pellegrini | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.1% |
| Michael Campbell | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 2.5% |
| George Saunders | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 13.3% | 18.4% |
| Tommy Fink | 9.5% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.9% |
| Emilie Mademann | 1.7% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 13.1% | 27.2% |
| Michael Marshall | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.1% |
| Emily Maxwell | 4.3% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.6% |
| Massimo Soriano | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 4.3% |
| Matthew Carmody | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.7% |
| Megan Magill | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 3.6% |
| Brendan Kopp | 9.4% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.