Race 15A

george-warren-smith

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

30.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Nick Sertl 21.7% 21.9% 15.5% 15.4% 10.2% 8.8% 3.1% 1.9% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Sarah Fuller 4.4% 4.2% 6.1% 6.3% 7.9% 9.4% 12.8% 15.9% 16.1% 11.8% 4.1% 0.9% 0.1%
Charles Sinks 25.7% 22.6% 15.8% 14.6% 9.8% 6.1% 2.9% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ethan Stark 9.4% 8.8% 10.5% 12.1% 12.6% 13.7% 12.4% 9.1% 7.1% 3.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Rolfe Glover 8.5% 9.7% 10.9% 11.8% 10.6% 13.1% 11.8% 10.1% 7.4% 5.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Nicholas Arabia 8.0% 8.3% 10.6% 10.2% 13.1% 12.2% 13.1% 10.3% 7.9% 4.9% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Stephanie Clancy 0.9% 1.3% 1.7% 1.7% 2.3% 2.4% 3.9% 5.3% 11.2% 19.7% 34.5% 13.2% 1.9%
Scott Booth 7.3% 8.7% 10.4% 10.6% 11.9% 10.8% 14.3% 13.2% 8.5% 3.3% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Myles Everett 3.0% 3.9% 4.0% 4.5% 6.0% 6.8% 10.3% 14.2% 20.8% 15.6% 9.0% 1.9% 0.0%
Samuel Cushing 10.1% 9.5% 13.0% 11.5% 12.6% 12.8% 10.8% 10.0% 6.8% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
Anthony Lowther 0.8% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 2.8% 3.3% 3.6% 6.3% 9.0% 23.6% 31.9% 13.4% 2.8%
Christine Reighley 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.8% 0.9% 2.3% 7.3% 10.3% 43.2% 33.7%
Emily Chase 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.9% 1.2% 2.6% 5.6% 27.1% 61.5%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.