Race 17A

george-warren-smith

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Charles Sinks 26.1% 22.8% 15.5% 14.8% 9.2% 6.2% 3.3% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Scott Booth 7.4% 7.6% 10.9% 9.6% 12.5% 13.3% 15.3% 10.4% 7.9% 4.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0%
Nick Sertl 22.3% 20.2% 16.6% 13.5% 13.5% 5.8% 5.1% 2.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nicholas Arabia 7.6% 8.1% 9.2% 11.1% 11.6% 13.6% 12.6% 12.4% 8.9% 4.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0%
Rolfe Glover 8.4% 9.2% 11.4% 11.7% 10.0% 11.2% 14.3% 11.7% 7.7% 3.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
Ethan Stark 8.7% 10.8% 11.3% 11.8% 13.0% 12.6% 11.1% 9.9% 7.5% 3.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Myles Everett 4.2% 3.4% 3.7% 5.8% 6.0% 8.2% 7.8% 14.8% 20.2% 16.0% 8.6% 1.3% 0.0%
Sarah Fuller 3.8% 5.7% 6.4% 5.7% 7.8% 10.8% 12.8% 15.9% 17.5% 8.9% 4.2% 0.5% 0.0%
Samuel Cushing 9.6% 10.4% 11.8% 12.2% 11.6% 12.1% 11.0% 9.6% 7.8% 3.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
Anthony Lowther 0.9% 0.8% 1.5% 1.4% 2.6% 2.8% 3.1% 5.1% 9.5% 22.7% 30.5% 16.0% 3.1%
Christine Reighley 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 1.1% 2.1% 6.3% 16.2% 42.8% 29.7%
Stephanie Clancy 0.7% 0.7% 1.2% 1.9% 2.1% 2.8% 3.0% 5.1% 8.4% 24.1% 30.9% 15.9% 3.2%
Emily Chase 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 1.5% 3.8% 6.3% 22.9% 64.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.