Race 6B

george-warren-smith

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

30.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Ty Ingram 26.2% 23.0% 18.1% 14.1% 9.1% 4.6% 3.0% 1.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Patrick Penwell 5.3% 5.9% 7.3% 9.8% 9.2% 12.0% 14.9% 16.3% 11.1% 6.8% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Dylan Farrell 6.3% 7.0% 8.8% 10.4% 11.9% 13.4% 15.0% 13.2% 9.8% 2.8% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0%
John Rolander 21.4% 18.8% 17.3% 13.5% 12.7% 8.6% 4.3% 2.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Kendal Richardson 13.6% 13.6% 12.8% 13.5% 15.1% 11.6% 8.7% 6.4% 3.7% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ryan Schmitz 10.0% 13.6% 11.9% 13.6% 13.4% 13.1% 9.7% 8.0% 4.8% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Leslie Beedell 1.2% 1.3% 2.1% 2.6% 2.1% 3.4% 5.7% 7.8% 14.7% 27.6% 21.2% 8.6% 1.7%
Reed Lorimer 8.5% 7.9% 10.6% 10.9% 11.8% 13.7% 15.2% 11.6% 6.8% 2.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Peter Christensen 5.2% 6.1% 7.1% 8.3% 8.9% 12.7% 13.7% 16.7% 12.6% 6.7% 1.4% 0.6% 0.0%
Angelina Todaro 1.4% 1.9% 3.3% 2.8% 4.3% 5.2% 6.2% 11.3% 21.6% 23.1% 13.7% 3.9% 1.3%
Carl Noble 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.7% 0.6% 1.9% 3.0% 7.2% 13.4% 28.7% 27.9% 15.3%
Andrew Snodgrass 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 2.8% 5.8% 13.4% 26.3% 48.4%
Justin Morano 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.7% 0.5% 0.9% 1.5% 3.3% 8.2% 18.4% 32.3% 33.3%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.