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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University4.36+6.15vs Predicted
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2University of Rhode Island3.62+8.32vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.80+6.50vs Predicted
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4Salve Regina University3.92+4.65vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University3.77+4.35vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont3.62+4.06vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.79+2.28vs Predicted
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8Tufts University3.70+1.68vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University3.07+3.41vs Predicted
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10College of Charleston3.64+0.24vs Predicted
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11Brown University4.30-3.72vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College3.66-1.71vs Predicted
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13Boston University4.07-5.06vs Predicted
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14Boston College3.50-3.75vs Predicted
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15Dartmouth College4.06-6.90vs Predicted
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16Eckerd College2.90-2.91vs Predicted
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17U. S. Naval Academy3.66-6.99vs Predicted
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18Yale University4.19-10.62vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.15Harvard University4.360.1%1st Place
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10.32University of Rhode Island3.620.0%1st Place
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9.5St. Mary's College of Maryland3.800.1%1st Place
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8.65Salve Regina University3.920.1%1st Place
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9.35Georgetown University3.770.1%1st Place
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10.06University of Vermont3.620.1%1st Place
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9.28Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.790.1%1st Place
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9.68Tufts University3.700.0%1st Place
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12.41Roger Williams University3.070.0%1st Place
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10.24College of Charleston3.640.1%1st Place
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7.28Brown University4.300.1%1st Place
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10.29Connecticut College3.660.0%1st Place
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7.94Boston University4.070.1%1st Place
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10.25Boston College3.500.0%1st Place
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8.1Dartmouth College4.060.1%1st Place
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13.09Eckerd College2.900.0%1st Place
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10.01U. S. Naval Academy3.660.0%1st Place
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7.38Yale University4.190.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brendan Kopp | 8.3% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Matthew Carmody | 3.9% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 5.1% |
| Megan Magill | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 3.0% |
| Peter Pellegrini | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 2.5% |
| Michael Campbell | 5.2% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 3.9% |
| Coleman Bowen | 5.4% | 3.3% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 8.4% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.6% |
| Philip Crain | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 3.9% |
| Massimo Soriano | 4.5% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.0% |
| George Saunders | 2.6% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 11.9% | 16.8% |
| Mac Mace | 5.0% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 4.5% |
| Tommy Fink | 9.3% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.8% |
| Michael Marshall | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.7% |
| Ben Greenfield | 8.4% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.2% |
| Emily Maxwell | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.3% |
| Sam Williams | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 1.8% |
| Emilie Mademann | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 12.7% | 24.1% |
| Jason Carminati | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 5.3% |
| Joseph Morris | 8.1% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.