Race 11B

george-warren-smith

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
John Rolander 20.1% 17.8% 16.7% 15.6% 11.4% 8.3% 5.0% 3.5% 0.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Ryan Schmitz 9.8% 10.6% 12.0% 13.5% 14.0% 10.9% 11.1% 7.4% 6.5% 2.7% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Kendal Richardson 10.2% 14.2% 12.8% 13.5% 12.7% 13.5% 9.2% 6.9% 4.4% 2.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Michael Rottier 4.0% 4.9% 5.8% 6.6% 9.1% 9.0% 11.6% 13.3% 14.8% 12.3% 6.6% 1.8% 0.2%
Ty Ingram 27.7% 20.6% 18.6% 12.6% 9.3% 6.0% 2.3% 2.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Dylan Farrell 7.1% 8.0% 8.3% 9.5% 11.0% 12.0% 11.7% 12.3% 8.8% 8.5% 2.5% 0.3% 0.0%
Reed Lorimer 9.1% 8.1% 10.2% 10.1% 10.2% 13.4% 11.4% 10.9% 9.1% 5.1% 1.9% 0.5% 0.0%
Peter Christensen 5.7% 7.3% 5.7% 8.3% 8.7% 9.7% 14.8% 12.9% 13.3% 8.6% 4.3% 0.6% 0.1%
Peter Girard 3.5% 5.2% 4.9% 5.2% 7.2% 7.8% 11.9% 14.4% 15.1% 13.8% 8.2% 2.4% 0.4%
Angelina Todaro 1.5% 1.7% 3.4% 2.7% 3.3% 4.3% 6.1% 7.8% 13.6% 20.3% 23.1% 10.2% 2.0%
Andrew Snodgrass 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.4% 1.5% 3.7% 7.8% 25.0% 59.7%
Leslie Beedell 0.8% 1.0% 1.3% 1.7% 1.8% 3.4% 3.7% 6.2% 8.4% 16.3% 28.8% 20.8% 5.8%
Carl Noble 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 1.1% 1.2% 0.9% 1.9% 2.9% 5.8% 14.8% 38.4% 31.8%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.