Race 12B

george-warren-smith

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Ty Ingram 27.7% 20.6% 17.8% 13.5% 8.6% 5.5% 3.5% 1.7% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kendal Richardson 11.9% 12.4% 12.3% 14.1% 15.0% 9.5% 9.5% 8.2% 4.4% 1.6% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Ryan Schmitz 9.2% 10.6% 12.8% 13.3% 12.2% 11.6% 12.9% 8.1% 5.5% 2.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0%
John Rolander 19.9% 19.3% 16.9% 14.5% 11.3% 8.0% 5.3% 2.8% 1.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Michael Rottier 5.4% 4.9% 5.3% 8.6% 7.8% 9.7% 10.7% 12.1% 14.8% 12.7% 6.7% 1.1% 0.2%
Peter Girard 3.6% 5.0% 4.8% 6.7% 7.4% 10.2% 9.6% 12.2% 16.6% 12.9% 8.5% 2.4% 0.1%
Dylan Farrell 7.3% 8.3% 10.0% 7.7% 10.6% 12.1% 11.0% 13.1% 9.3% 7.0% 3.0% 0.6% 0.0%
Reed Lorimer 7.3% 9.2% 9.6% 9.2% 11.3% 11.3% 13.4% 11.7% 9.9% 5.1% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Peter Christensen 4.9% 6.1% 7.3% 6.9% 8.8% 12.0% 12.2% 12.2% 13.2% 11.2% 4.2% 0.9% 0.1%
Andrew Snodgrass 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.6% 0.6% 1.1% 1.3% 4.1% 6.0% 22.1% 63.0%
Angelina Todaro 1.5% 2.0% 1.7% 3.2% 3.9% 5.3% 5.8% 8.6% 13.6% 21.0% 22.4% 9.0% 2.0%
Leslie Beedell 0.7% 1.1% 1.2% 1.5% 1.8% 3.2% 4.5% 6.5% 6.2% 14.8% 32.1% 21.1% 5.3%
Carl Noble 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 1.7% 3.0% 5.9% 13.9% 42.0% 29.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.