Race 16B

george-warren-smith

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

23.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
John Rolander 20.3% 16.9% 18.4% 14.9% 11.2% 8.1% 5.5% 2.3% 1.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ty Ingram 27.5% 22.0% 17.7% 13.6% 7.1% 5.8% 3.9% 1.4% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Dylan Farrell 5.1% 7.6% 9.2% 9.9% 10.7% 11.6% 12.3% 12.3% 9.6% 8.9% 2.1% 0.7% 0.0%
Peter Girard 3.3% 3.6% 5.2% 6.6% 8.1% 9.0% 10.6% 13.0% 14.9% 13.8% 9.3% 2.5% 0.1%
Ryan Schmitz 10.8% 13.0% 12.1% 10.9% 12.5% 11.9% 11.2% 7.2% 6.6% 2.6% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Kendal Richardson 12.3% 14.1% 12.8% 13.9% 12.0% 11.3% 8.9% 7.9% 3.8% 2.2% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Andrew Snodgrass 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.5% 0.6% 0.7% 1.4% 0.6% 1.2% 3.5% 6.4% 21.1% 63.6%
Michael Rottier 4.6% 5.9% 5.2% 5.6% 8.3% 9.6% 12.4% 13.6% 15.1% 12.2% 6.6% 0.9% 0.0%
Reed Lorimer 6.9% 8.4% 9.4% 10.0% 12.3% 11.7% 11.3% 12.2% 10.3% 4.6% 2.3% 0.6% 0.0%
Peter Christensen 6.4% 6.1% 5.7% 8.0% 10.3% 11.7% 10.2% 13.0% 13.2% 9.9% 4.3% 1.2% 0.0%
Angelina Todaro 1.2% 1.2% 2.6% 3.6% 3.9% 4.7% 6.6% 9.2% 13.5% 20.2% 21.2% 9.5% 2.6%
Leslie Beedell 0.9% 0.8% 1.5% 2.0% 2.2% 2.9% 4.3% 5.4% 6.7% 16.1% 30.8% 20.8% 5.6%
Carl Noble 0.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 0.8% 1.0% 1.4% 1.9% 2.2% 5.5% 15.1% 42.6% 28.1%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.