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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College4.06+7.38vs Predicted
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2Harvard University4.36+5.04vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.80+6.57vs Predicted
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4Connecticut College3.66+5.78vs Predicted
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5College of Charleston3.64+4.93vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island3.62+4.09vs Predicted
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7Brown University4.30+0.15vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University3.07+4.27vs Predicted
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9Eckerd College2.90+4.07vs Predicted
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10Boston University4.07-1.65vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.79-1.57vs Predicted
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12Tufts University3.70-1.88vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont3.62-3.14vs Predicted
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14Yale University4.19-6.65vs Predicted
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15Salve Regina University3.92-6.29vs Predicted
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16U. S. Naval Academy3.66-6.04vs Predicted
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17Boston College3.50-6.27vs Predicted
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18Georgetown University3.77-8.77vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.38Dartmouth College4.060.1%1st Place
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7.04Harvard University4.360.1%1st Place
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9.57St. Mary's College of Maryland3.800.0%1st Place
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9.78Connecticut College3.660.1%1st Place
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9.93College of Charleston3.640.0%1st Place
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10.09University of Rhode Island3.620.1%1st Place
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7.15Brown University4.300.1%1st Place
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12.27Roger Williams University3.070.0%1st Place
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13.07Eckerd College2.900.0%1st Place
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8.35Boston University4.070.1%1st Place
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9.43Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.790.1%1st Place
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10.12Tufts University3.700.0%1st Place
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9.86University of Vermont3.620.1%1st Place
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7.35Yale University4.190.1%1st Place
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8.71Salve Regina University3.920.1%1st Place
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9.96U. S. Naval Academy3.660.0%1st Place
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10.73Boston College3.500.0%1st Place
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9.23Georgetown University3.770.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Williams | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 1.9% |
| Brendan Kopp | 8.2% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| Megan Magill | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 4.3% | 3.0% |
| Michael Marshall | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 4.5% |
| Mac Mace | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.4% |
| Matthew Carmody | 5.2% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.1% |
| Tommy Fink | 8.8% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.1% |
| George Saunders | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 9.7% | 11.3% | 17.5% |
| Emilie Mademann | 2.4% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 9.6% | 14.2% | 21.3% |
| Ben Greenfield | 7.7% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.7% |
| Philip Crain | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.0% |
| Massimo Soriano | 4.7% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.8% |
| Coleman Bowen | 5.3% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.9% |
| Joseph Morris | 8.2% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Peter Pellegrini | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 2.5% |
| Jason Carminati | 4.3% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 5.5% |
| Emily Maxwell | 4.3% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 7.9% |
| Michael Campbell | 5.5% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 3.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.