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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.39+4.82vs Predicted
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2Fordham University3.52+3.37vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.32+3.01vs Predicted
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4Columbia University1.65+7.25vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont2.90+2.27vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy3.02+0.91vs Predicted
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7Cornell University2.43+1.92vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland3.49-2.72vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College2.14+0.88vs Predicted
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10Yale University2.45-0.89vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.82-3.34vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania3.16-5.25vs Predicted
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13Washington College2.01-2.79vs Predicted
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14SUNY Stony Brook-0.23+1.49vs Predicted
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15George Washington University2.79-7.39vs Predicted
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16Williams College0.59-1.84vs Predicted
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17Sacred Heart University-0.43-1.08vs Predicted
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18Fairfield University-1.96-0.60vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.82Dartmouth College3.390.1%1st Place
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5.37Fordham University3.520.1%1st Place
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6.01Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.320.1%1st Place
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11.25Columbia University1.650.0%1st Place
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7.27University of Vermont2.900.1%1st Place
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6.91U. S. Naval Academy3.020.1%1st Place
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8.92Cornell University2.430.0%1st Place
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5.28St. Mary's College of Maryland3.490.1%1st Place
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9.88SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
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9.11Yale University2.450.1%1st Place
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7.66U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.820.1%1st Place
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6.75University of Pennsylvania3.160.1%1st Place
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10.21Washington College2.010.0%1st Place
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15.49SUNY Stony Brook-0.230.0%1st Place
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7.61George Washington University2.790.1%1st Place
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14.16Williams College0.590.0%1st Place
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15.92Sacred Heart University-0.430.0%1st Place
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17.4Fairfield University-1.960.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Johnstone | 11.0% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Will Holz | 11.1% | 11.0% | 13.0% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 11.4% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elliott Morrill | 9.8% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adam DeVita | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 11.1% | 16.4% | 15.4% | 7.1% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| William Crary | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Addison Hackstaff | 7.3% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Balk | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 7.6% | 4.5% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Markus Edegran | 11.9% | 14.2% | 11.7% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Maes | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 10.4% | 11.5% | 11.6% | 8.0% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Eric Anderson | 5.2% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 5.1% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Max Neubelt | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 7.9% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jack Swikart | 8.7% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew McDermaid | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 10.3% | 12.0% | 13.7% | 9.6% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Andrew Lithen | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 6.9% | 11.5% | 30.6% | 29.3% | 9.7% |
| Daniel DelBello | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brent Bomkamp | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 5.9% | 11.1% | 25.0% | 25.2% | 12.9% | 2.3% |
| David Tampellini | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 10.9% | 22.1% | 42.1% | 12.4% |
| John Hurley | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 6.0% | 12.4% | 75.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.