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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.69+2.94vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.67+4.80vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania2.87+3.13vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College2.87+1.88vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont1.72+4.44vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+1.46vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39-2.41vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.87+0.95vs Predicted
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9Columbia University0.11+4.86vs Predicted
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10George Washington University2.28-2.06vs Predicted
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11Washington College1.63-1.09vs Predicted
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12Cornell University1.74-2.24vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College1.23-2.15vs Predicted
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14SUNY Stony Brook0.03-0.15vs Predicted
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15Fairfield University-1.06+0.92vs Predicted
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16Williams College-3.06+1.68vs Predicted
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17Sacred Heart University-0.03-2.79vs Predicted
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18U. S. Naval Academy3.63-14.15vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.94St. Mary's College of Maryland3.690.2%1st Place
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6.8Yale University2.670.1%1st Place
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6.13University of Pennsylvania2.870.1%1st Place
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5.88Dartmouth College2.870.1%1st Place
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9.44University of Vermont1.720.0%1st Place
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7.46Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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4.59U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.1%1st Place
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8.95Fordham University1.870.0%1st Place
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13.86Columbia University0.110.0%1st Place
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7.94George Washington University2.280.1%1st Place
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9.91Washington College1.630.0%1st Place
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9.76Cornell University1.740.0%1st Place
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10.85SUNY Maritime College1.230.0%1st Place
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13.85SUNY Stony Brook0.030.0%1st Place
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15.92Fairfield University-1.060.0%1st Place
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17.68Williams College-3.060.0%1st Place
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14.21Sacred Heart University-0.030.0%1st Place
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3.85U. S. Naval Academy3.630.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradley Adam | 18.4% | 17.3% | 14.9% | 12.6% | 11.0% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Katharina (KB) Knapp | 5.3% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 10.5% | 8.0% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Drew Gallagher | 7.7% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Johansson | 9.1% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 11.5% | 8.3% | 10.6% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mike Kanare | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 9.1% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Connor Swikart | 5.3% | 4.6% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charles Lomax | 13.9% | 15.0% | 12.9% | 11.9% | 10.6% | 11.1% | 9.0% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Anders Ekholm | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 6.2% | 3.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Siegal | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 7.6% | 15.9% | 19.0% | 23.6% | 11.2% | 1.1% |
| Colin Kennedy | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 10.9% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Smith | 3.2% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 13.5% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 5.5% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Colin Keil | 2.7% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 11.1% | 11.9% | 9.6% | 4.9% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| James Keegan | 1.5% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 12.1% | 13.5% | 12.8% | 10.2% | 4.3% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Brendan Brown-McCue | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 10.0% | 12.1% | 19.1% | 22.9% | 12.3% | 1.2% |
| Katherine Fox | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 8.6% | 16.5% | 49.3% | 10.0% |
| Maeve Serino | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 7.6% | 86.0% |
| William Herlihy | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 10.9% | 20.4% | 23.6% | 17.1% | 1.7% |
| Gary Prieto | 19.0% | 16.9% | 15.5% | 13.0% | 12.1% | 9.8% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.