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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.63+3.12vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+5.70vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.69+0.86vs Predicted
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4Fordham University1.87+5.01vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College1.23+5.82vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont1.72+3.55vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College2.87-1.05vs Predicted
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8Yale University2.67-1.44vs Predicted
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9George Washington University2.28-1.24vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania2.87-3.82vs Predicted
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11Washington College1.63-1.04vs Predicted
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12Columbia University0.11+1.97vs Predicted
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13Cornell University1.74-3.61vs Predicted
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14Sacred Heart University-0.03-0.11vs Predicted
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15Fairfield University-1.36+1.20vs Predicted
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16SUNY Stony Brook0.03-1.97vs Predicted
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17Williams College-3.06+0.65vs Predicted
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18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39-13.59vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.12U. S. Naval Academy3.630.2%1st Place
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7.7Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.0%1st Place
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3.86St. Mary's College of Maryland3.690.2%1st Place
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9.01Fordham University1.870.0%1st Place
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10.82SUNY Maritime College1.230.0%1st Place
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9.55University of Vermont1.720.0%1st Place
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5.95Dartmouth College2.870.1%1st Place
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6.56Yale University2.670.1%1st Place
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7.76George Washington University2.280.1%1st Place
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6.18University of Pennsylvania2.870.1%1st Place
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9.96Washington College1.630.0%1st Place
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13.97Columbia University0.110.0%1st Place
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9.39Cornell University1.740.0%1st Place
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13.89Sacred Heart University-0.030.0%1st Place
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16.2Fairfield University-1.360.0%1st Place
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14.03SUNY Stony Brook0.030.0%1st Place
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17.65Williams College-3.060.0%1st Place
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4.41U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gary Prieto | 16.6% | 17.6% | 14.3% | 12.9% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Swikart | 3.5% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Bradley Adam | 19.2% | 16.7% | 15.0% | 14.1% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Anders Ekholm | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 10.7% | 11.4% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| James Keegan | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 15.1% | 12.5% | 10.6% | 3.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Mike Kanare | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 11.4% | 10.8% | 8.1% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Johansson | 8.2% | 11.8% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 9.5% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Katharina (KB) Knapp | 7.3% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Colin Kennedy | 5.3% | 3.3% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 10.8% | 9.5% | 10.6% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 2.8% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Drew Gallagher | 9.3% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 10.3% | 12.3% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Smith | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 11.3% | 11.4% | 11.9% | 9.2% | 5.7% | 2.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Siegal | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 9.0% | 14.1% | 21.5% | 23.8% | 11.3% | 0.9% |
| Colin Keil | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 11.1% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 4.4% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| William Herlihy | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 15.0% | 18.7% | 22.3% | 12.2% | 1.2% |
| Kelsey Laforest | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 8.4% | 15.8% | 52.0% | 13.0% |
| Brendan Brown-McCue | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 14.5% | 20.6% | 22.7% | 13.1% | 1.2% |
| Maeve Serino | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 3.6% | 9.8% | 83.6% |
| Charles Lomax | 15.4% | 14.5% | 13.9% | 13.3% | 11.2% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.