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📊 Prediction Accuracy
66.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.69+2.99vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy3.63+1.99vs Predicted
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3Cornell University1.74+6.60vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.87+1.93vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39-0.43vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+1.39vs Predicted
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7George Washington University2.28+0.70vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.87+0.94vs Predicted
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9Dartmouth College2.87-3.12vs Predicted
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10Yale University2.67-3.29vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont1.72-1.42vs Predicted
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12SUNY Stony Brook0.03+1.94vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College1.23-2.29vs Predicted
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14Washington College1.63-4.50vs Predicted
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15Columbia University0.11-1.37vs Predicted
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16Sacred Heart University-0.86-0.66vs Predicted
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17Fairfield University-1.36-0.94vs Predicted
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18Williams College-3.06-0.46vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.99St. Mary's College of Maryland3.690.2%1st Place
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3.99U. S. Naval Academy3.630.2%1st Place
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9.6Cornell University1.740.0%1st Place
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5.93University of Pennsylvania2.870.1%1st Place
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4.57U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.2%1st Place
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7.39Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.0%1st Place
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7.7George Washington University2.280.0%1st Place
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8.94Fordham University1.870.0%1st Place
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5.88Dartmouth College2.870.1%1st Place
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6.71Yale University2.670.1%1st Place
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9.58University of Vermont1.720.0%1st Place
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13.94SUNY Stony Brook0.030.0%1st Place
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10.71SUNY Maritime College1.230.0%1st Place
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9.5Washington College1.630.0%1st Place
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13.63Columbia University0.110.0%1st Place
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15.34Sacred Heart University-0.860.0%1st Place
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16.06Fairfield University-1.360.0%1st Place
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17.54Williams College-3.060.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradley Adam | 17.7% | 16.0% | 15.1% | 15.5% | 10.3% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gary Prieto | 16.3% | 16.6% | 15.8% | 13.0% | 13.6% | 9.4% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Colin Keil | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 12.4% | 12.4% | 7.9% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Drew Gallagher | 8.3% | 11.1% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 10.7% | 10.5% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charles Lomax | 15.9% | 14.9% | 11.7% | 12.3% | 11.7% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Swikart | 4.9% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Colin Kennedy | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Anders Ekholm | 3.9% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 10.6% | 11.9% | 11.0% | 10.1% | 5.8% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Johansson | 7.7% | 9.9% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Katharina (KB) Knapp | 8.7% | 5.0% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 11.3% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mike Kanare | 3.6% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 13.0% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 9.5% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Brendan Brown-McCue | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 5.9% | 8.5% | 16.8% | 23.6% | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.1% |
| James Keegan | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 11.8% | 14.5% | 13.6% | 8.8% | 2.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Alexander Smith | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 11.1% | 11.5% | 11.2% | 8.9% | 4.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Siegal | 0.3% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 9.8% | 18.6% | 24.7% | 18.1% | 6.3% | 0.6% |
| Colby Jennings | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 7.9% | 16.9% | 28.4% | 28.9% | 5.8% |
| Kelsey Laforest | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 9.8% | 21.6% | 44.5% | 12.1% |
| Maeve Serino | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 10.7% | 80.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.