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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University3.47+2.34vs Predicted
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2George Washington University3.41+1.46vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.42+2.58vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.96+0.42vs Predicted
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5William and Mary1.72+1.93vs Predicted
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6Virginia Tech1.35+1.73vs Predicted
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7Hampton University3.02-2.82vs Predicted
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8Christopher Newport University2.24-2.09vs Predicted
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9Virginia Tech1.35-1.27vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University2.51-4.59vs Predicted
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11University of Maryland0.87-2.39vs Predicted
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12SUNY Stony Brook-0.88-1.25vs Predicted
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14Catholic University of America-2.91-1.69vs Predicted
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15St. John's College-3.01-2.63vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.34Georgetown University3.470.2%1st Place
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3.46George Washington University3.410.2%1st Place
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5.58U. S. Naval Academy2.420.1%1st Place
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4.42St. Mary's College of Maryland2.960.1%1st Place
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6.93William and Mary1.720.0%1st Place
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7.73Virginia Tech1.350.0%1st Place
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4.18Hampton University3.020.2%1st Place
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5.91Christopher Newport University2.240.1%1st Place
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7.73Virginia Tech1.350.0%1st Place
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5.41Old Dominion University2.510.1%1st Place
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8.61University of Maryland0.870.0%1st Place
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10.75SUNY Stony Brook-0.880.0%1st Place
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12.31Catholic University of America-2.910.0%1st Place
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12.37St. John's College-3.010.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Golden | 22.5% | 18.9% | 16.7% | 15.7% | 10.1% | 7.9% | 4.6% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kai Friesecke | 21.5% | 18.7% | 16.7% | 13.8% | 10.5% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Morgan | 6.4% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 13.1% | 12.4% | 14.7% | 12.4% | 9.7% | 3.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Edmund Cooper | 12.8% | 13.1% | 13.2% | 15.0% | 12.2% | 12.6% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adam Siegel | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 11.0% | 16.5% | 18.9% | 13.0% | 3.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| McKay Hanna | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 14.0% | 21.5% | 21.3% | 6.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maximilian Kuester | 15.3% | 14.3% | 12.8% | 14.7% | 13.0% | 11.1% | 9.4% | 5.8% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Xander Van Beurden | 6.1% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 12.9% | 15.0% | 15.3% | 10.7% | 5.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| McKay Hanna | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 14.0% | 21.5% | 21.3% | 6.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Spracher | 7.3% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 13.0% | 13.8% | 11.3% | 11.9% | 9.1% | 3.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Bobbitt | 1.4% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 7.5% | 10.4% | 15.7% | 37.3% | 12.2% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Haley | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 5.0% | 11.2% | 61.7% | 15.5% | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Mortin | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 8.5% | 42.8% | 46.6% | 0.0% |
| Megan Mitchell | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 7.1% | 39.7% | 51.4% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.