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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.96+6.04vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.80+5.65vs Predicted
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3Boston University3.35+6.57vs Predicted
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4Boston College3.24+5.65vs Predicted
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5Salve Regina University2.54+7.51vs Predicted
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6Brown University3.40+3.16vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College4.05-0.52vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont3.73-0.28vs Predicted
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9College of Charleston4.00-2.43vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.42-0.72vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy3.38-1.59vs Predicted
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12Roger Williams University3.15-1.39vs Predicted
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13Georgetown University2.81-1.54vs Predicted
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14Tufts University3.29-4.72vs Predicted
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15Harvard University2.41-1.82vs Predicted
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16Connecticut College2.67-3.79vs Predicted
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17Eckerd College3.70-8.97vs Predicted
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18University of Rhode Island2.87-6.81vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.04St. Mary's College of Maryland3.960.1%1st Place
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7.65Yale University3.800.1%1st Place
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9.57Boston University3.350.0%1st Place
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9.65Boston College3.240.1%1st Place
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12.51Salve Regina University2.540.0%1st Place
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9.16Brown University3.400.1%1st Place
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6.48Dartmouth College4.050.1%1st Place
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7.72University of Vermont3.730.1%1st Place
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6.57College of Charleston4.000.1%1st Place
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9.28Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.420.1%1st Place
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9.41U. S. Naval Academy3.380.1%1st Place
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10.61Roger Williams University3.150.0%1st Place
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11.46Georgetown University2.810.0%1st Place
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9.28Tufts University3.290.1%1st Place
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13.18Harvard University2.410.0%1st Place
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12.21Connecticut College2.670.0%1st Place
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8.03Eckerd College3.700.1%1st Place
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11.19University of Rhode Island2.870.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Diaz De Leon | 8.6% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Christopher Segerblom | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.7% |
| Matt Johnson | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 2.7% |
| Jonathan Lutz | 5.3% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.9% |
| Robert Lippincott | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 18.1% |
| Nikolas Osvalds | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 3.2% |
| Matthew Wefer | 10.3% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Olin Davis | 7.2% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.8% |
| Samuel Stokes | 9.9% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Hanna Vincent | 6.6% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 3.7% | 2.1% |
| Taylor Vann | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 3.6% |
| Andrew Tamblyn | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 5.6% |
| Lauren Burke | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 10.7% |
| Catherine Swanson | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 3.1% |
| Ryan Byrne | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 10.1% | 14.4% | 20.8% |
| Max Rollins | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 12.3% | 13.8% |
| Hidde Van Der Molen | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.1% |
| Ryan Hughes | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 7.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.