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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University3.41+2.45vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University2.51+3.36vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.96+1.41vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University3.47-0.66vs Predicted
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5William and Mary1.72+1.96vs Predicted
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6Virginia Tech1.35+1.75vs Predicted
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7Hampton University3.02-2.81vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy2.42-2.45vs Predicted
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10University of Maryland0.87-1.39vs Predicted
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11Virginia Tech1.35-3.25vs Predicted
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12SUNY Stony Brook-0.88-1.31vs Predicted
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13Catholic University of America-2.91-0.73vs Predicted
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14St. John's College-3.01-1.61vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University2.24-8.98vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.45George Washington University3.410.2%1st Place
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5.36Old Dominion University2.510.1%1st Place
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4.41St. Mary's College of Maryland2.960.1%1st Place
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3.34Georgetown University3.470.2%1st Place
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6.96William and Mary1.720.0%1st Place
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7.75Virginia Tech1.350.0%1st Place
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4.19Hampton University3.020.2%1st Place
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5.55U. S. Naval Academy2.420.1%1st Place
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8.61University of Maryland0.870.0%1st Place
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7.75Virginia Tech1.350.0%1st Place
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10.69SUNY Stony Brook-0.880.0%1st Place
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12.27Catholic University of America-2.910.0%1st Place
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12.39St. John's College-3.010.0%1st Place
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6.02Christopher Newport University2.240.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai Friesecke | 21.4% | 19.7% | 14.2% | 14.5% | 12.3% | 8.6% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Spracher | 8.2% | 8.8% | 11.0% | 9.8% | 11.6% | 15.0% | 12.8% | 10.3% | 7.6% | 4.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Edmund Cooper | 12.5% | 13.8% | 12.9% | 15.5% | 11.8% | 11.7% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sean Golden | 21.2% | 21.4% | 15.1% | 14.3% | 12.0% | 8.8% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adam Siegel | 4.4% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 17.6% | 19.5% | 13.3% | 2.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| McKay Hanna | 2.0% | 2.9% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 12.1% | 11.6% | 22.8% | 22.1% | 5.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maximilian Kuester | 15.7% | 11.9% | 16.7% | 12.9% | 13.0% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 6.1% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Morgan | 7.5% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 11.3% | 13.9% | 13.1% | 14.9% | 8.5% | 3.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Bobbitt | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 10.0% | 17.9% | 38.2% | 11.4% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| McKay Hanna | 2.0% | 2.9% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 12.1% | 11.6% | 22.8% | 22.1% | 5.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Haley | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 8.8% | 62.5% | 15.0% | 2.8% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Mortin | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 8.5% | 46.4% | 43.1% | 0.0% |
| Megan Mitchell | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 6.8% | 37.0% | 54.0% | 0.0% |
| Xander Van Beurden | 5.1% | 5.9% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 11.6% | 15.8% | 14.4% | 12.1% | 5.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.