Race 1A

david-lee-arnoff-hws-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Patrick Snow 19.5% 15.7% 15.7% 12.1% 11.2% 8.1% 5.9% 5.2% 3.2% 2.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
Eddie Cox 11.1% 12.7% 12.0% 11.9% 12.0% 8.7% 8.4% 8.8% 5.8% 4.0% 3.3% 1.0% 0.3%
Peter Hidley 2.6% 2.7% 2.8% 4.1% 5.2% 5.8% 5.6% 7.9% 9.4% 11.8% 14.7% 15.5% 11.9%
Ryan Seago 10.0% 8.4% 10.7% 11.4% 10.2% 9.7% 10.2% 7.2% 8.8% 5.8% 4.7% 2.5% 0.4%
Hunter Johnstone 14.2% 16.1% 11.9% 11.0% 10.5% 10.7% 8.2% 6.7% 4.4% 3.2% 2.0% 0.9% 0.2%
Jonathan Lutz 9.5% 9.7% 11.2% 9.1% 10.4% 10.4% 9.7% 9.3% 6.1% 6.5% 4.4% 3.3% 0.4%
Joseph David 10.4% 9.0% 9.4% 9.4% 8.9% 9.7% 11.0% 7.6% 9.5% 7.3% 4.4% 2.7% 0.7%
Griffin Orr 5.2% 6.8% 6.2% 6.7% 6.6% 9.1% 9.0% 9.7% 9.9% 11.8% 9.0% 6.4% 3.6%
Charles Bocklet 3.6% 4.8% 3.6% 4.6% 6.2% 4.8% 7.0% 8.8% 11.1% 11.1% 13.0% 12.0% 9.4%
Duncan Howes 8.2% 8.2% 7.5% 9.5% 8.6% 11.0% 8.3% 9.6% 9.2% 7.2% 6.5% 4.1% 2.1%
Vincent Storino 2.7% 2.5% 4.1% 4.7% 5.4% 5.1% 6.7% 7.4% 9.6% 12.1% 12.4% 15.1% 12.2%
Travis Cottle 1.1% 1.3% 2.1% 2.0% 2.1% 2.2% 4.3% 4.2% 6.0% 6.5% 11.3% 17.4% 39.5%
Adam DeVita 1.9% 2.1% 2.8% 3.5% 2.7% 4.7% 5.7% 7.6% 7.0% 10.5% 13.5% 18.8% 19.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.