Race 1B

david-lee-arnoff-hws-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Greiner Hobbs 40.0% 24.7% 16.2% 9.2% 4.6% 2.9% 1.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kyle Burgess 10.5% 10.9% 12.7% 14.4% 12.6% 11.5% 9.6% 7.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.6% 1.0% 0.2%
Jimmy Madigan 9.2% 12.5% 13.5% 11.7% 12.7% 13.1% 9.5% 7.0% 5.5% 3.2% 1.6% 0.3% 0.2%
Clayton Sasaki 3.9% 4.1% 5.3% 6.8% 9.5% 8.2% 8.8% 10.7% 10.7% 11.2% 10.3% 6.7% 3.8%
Erik Weis 10.8% 13.1% 12.8% 11.9% 12.8% 9.8% 11.0% 7.5% 4.5% 3.7% 1.3% 0.7% 0.1%
Mason Wolters 3.6% 6.1% 6.2% 6.7% 9.2% 8.4% 10.1% 11.3% 11.2% 9.1% 9.1% 6.4% 2.6%
Soren Walljasper 6.6% 6.5% 7.5% 8.3% 10.3% 9.9% 10.4% 11.6% 9.6% 9.5% 5.7% 3.2% 0.9%
Jacob Spracher 8.0% 11.2% 10.0% 12.2% 9.8% 10.7% 13.1% 9.3% 6.4% 5.5% 1.8% 1.7% 0.3%
Rory Mess 1.0% 1.7% 3.0% 2.9% 3.4% 3.0% 4.6% 4.3% 8.3% 8.8% 13.9% 20.3% 24.8%
Jacob Bruce 2.0% 3.5% 3.6% 4.6% 4.0% 5.5% 7.7% 8.4% 10.8% 12.4% 13.9% 12.2% 11.4%
Padraig Loughlin 1.7% 2.2% 3.5% 4.7% 5.6% 7.1% 5.9% 8.3% 10.8% 13.6% 13.1% 13.5% 10.0%
Allison Price 1.5% 2.8% 3.9% 4.7% 3.9% 6.4% 5.5% 8.8% 10.6% 11.1% 15.1% 15.0% 10.7%
Nicole Edwards 1.2% 0.7% 1.8% 1.9% 1.6% 3.5% 2.4% 5.1% 6.3% 8.9% 12.6% 19.0% 35.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.