Race 2B

david-lee-arnoff-hws-fall

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Greiner Hobbs 38.2% 26.8% 16.5% 7.8% 5.3% 3.5% 1.0% 0.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kyle Burgess 10.2% 11.3% 13.7% 14.5% 12.6% 11.1% 8.7% 6.8% 5.4% 2.7% 1.9% 0.9% 0.2%
Erik Weis 9.0% 12.0% 13.2% 13.8% 11.8% 12.8% 9.7% 6.9% 5.0% 4.0% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1%
Rory Mess 1.4% 1.2% 1.6% 2.7% 2.9% 4.5% 5.2% 5.9% 7.9% 9.1% 13.6% 21.4% 22.6%
Jimmy Madigan 11.1% 12.6% 13.3% 12.0% 11.8% 11.3% 11.0% 7.1% 4.2% 3.3% 1.8% 0.3% 0.2%
Jacob Spracher 9.2% 9.4% 10.5% 11.8% 11.7% 12.5% 9.1% 8.2% 6.7% 5.6% 3.6% 1.5% 0.2%
Clayton Sasaki 5.5% 4.4% 5.8% 6.8% 7.8% 7.4% 10.2% 11.1% 10.8% 11.0% 10.1% 6.8% 2.3%
Mason Wolters 4.0% 6.1% 5.7% 7.1% 7.0% 9.5% 10.4% 11.0% 12.0% 10.2% 8.4% 6.3% 2.3%
Soren Walljasper 5.0% 6.7% 6.9% 8.6% 11.6% 8.0% 11.1% 12.0% 9.3% 9.4% 5.8% 4.2% 1.4%
Jacob Bruce 2.0% 3.1% 4.3% 4.1% 4.6% 5.8% 6.6% 9.7% 9.9% 11.8% 13.2% 13.6% 11.3%
Padraig Loughlin 1.8% 2.5% 3.1% 4.6% 6.0% 5.3% 7.5% 8.4% 10.0% 14.0% 12.9% 13.2% 10.7%
Allison Price 1.4% 3.2% 3.5% 4.4% 4.9% 5.9% 6.4% 7.1% 11.9% 10.5% 14.5% 15.5% 10.8%
Nicole Edwards 1.2% 0.7% 1.9% 1.8% 2.0% 2.4% 3.1% 5.4% 6.4% 8.4% 12.8% 16.0% 37.9%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.