Race 4B

david-lee-arnoff-hws-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Greiner Hobbs 40.6% 24.4% 17.3% 9.4% 4.4% 1.9% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Clayton Sasaki 3.6% 4.6% 6.1% 7.5% 7.9% 10.1% 11.1% 11.4% 11.3% 10.0% 7.1% 7.0% 2.3%
Jimmy Madigan 9.4% 12.1% 15.3% 12.3% 13.2% 12.5% 9.1% 7.1% 4.0% 3.4% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1%
Kyle Burgess 10.8% 12.5% 13.2% 13.7% 12.4% 11.2% 8.1% 8.1% 5.7% 2.6% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2%
Soren Walljasper 6.2% 7.2% 8.4% 9.9% 10.0% 10.9% 9.9% 12.2% 10.2% 6.1% 5.5% 3.1% 0.4%
DJ Litts 1.5% 2.5% 3.4% 4.5% 3.4% 4.8% 8.7% 8.1% 9.4% 13.1% 15.4% 14.9% 10.3%
Erik Weis 11.4% 13.7% 11.8% 13.6% 13.7% 10.1% 8.8% 7.2% 4.5% 3.2% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1%
Jacob Spracher 8.3% 10.8% 10.7% 11.2% 12.7% 13.0% 9.4% 9.3% 7.8% 3.6% 2.2% 0.5% 0.5%
Jacob Bruce 1.9% 3.3% 4.6% 3.7% 5.3% 6.0% 7.9% 7.7% 10.0% 13.8% 12.7% 12.3% 10.8%
Rory Mess 1.3% 2.8% 1.8% 2.8% 3.8% 3.3% 4.8% 6.3% 6.8% 11.3% 13.3% 18.6% 23.1%
Padraig Loughlin 1.8% 2.6% 3.0% 5.9% 5.2% 6.7% 8.3% 8.9% 11.7% 11.9% 13.5% 12.4% 8.1%
Nicole Edwards 0.8% 0.9% 1.8% 1.6% 2.5% 3.4% 4.5% 4.6% 6.3% 9.3% 12.3% 17.6% 34.4%
Allison Price 2.4% 2.6% 2.6% 3.9% 5.5% 6.1% 7.9% 8.7% 12.2% 11.7% 14.4% 12.3% 9.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.