Race 5B

david-lee-arnoff-hws-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.2%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Greiner Hobbs 40.0% 24.6% 16.1% 9.2% 5.4% 2.3% 1.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jimmy Madigan 10.1% 12.1% 13.4% 12.5% 13.9% 11.0% 8.8% 7.0% 5.7% 3.1% 1.5% 0.8% 0.1%
Jacob Spracher 7.4% 8.7% 11.8% 12.3% 9.8% 11.3% 11.6% 11.0% 6.7% 5.3% 2.9% 0.9% 0.3%
Kyle Burgess 10.9% 11.4% 12.3% 13.6% 11.9% 12.0% 9.2% 7.1% 6.8% 2.7% 1.3% 0.5% 0.3%
Clayton Sasaki 4.7% 4.8% 6.0% 7.8% 8.0% 8.5% 10.1% 9.7% 12.0% 9.3% 10.3% 5.9% 2.9%
Soren Walljasper 4.9% 8.1% 7.1% 9.2% 9.8% 10.4% 12.0% 9.8% 8.8% 8.6% 6.0% 4.4% 0.9%
Erik Weis 10.6% 13.7% 11.7% 11.3% 12.8% 12.4% 9.6% 7.3% 5.0% 2.9% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1%
Mason Wolters 3.9% 5.8% 6.3% 6.6% 7.1% 9.4% 10.4% 11.7% 10.0% 10.8% 9.5% 6.2% 2.3%
Allison Price 2.1% 2.9% 3.9% 4.0% 5.2% 5.4% 5.0% 8.8% 11.7% 13.1% 12.4% 14.4% 11.1%
Rory Mess 1.3% 1.7% 2.5% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 5.1% 5.3% 7.3% 10.4% 14.5% 18.5% 24.4%
Padraig Loughlin 1.7% 3.0% 2.6% 4.6% 5.7% 6.4% 7.1% 8.9% 10.0% 13.0% 13.1% 13.7% 10.2%
Jacob Bruce 1.4% 2.3% 4.5% 4.1% 5.0% 5.6% 6.2% 8.3% 9.8% 11.7% 14.8% 15.3% 11.0%
Nicole Edwards 1.0% 0.9% 1.8% 1.8% 2.4% 2.3% 3.3% 4.5% 6.1% 9.0% 11.6% 18.9% 36.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.