Race 6B

david-lee-arnoff-hws-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Greiner Hobbs 39.6% 25.3% 15.4% 10.1% 5.2% 2.2% 1.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Erik Weis 10.1% 10.8% 15.3% 11.4% 13.0% 11.4% 9.4% 7.9% 4.9% 3.1% 1.9% 0.7% 0.1%
Mason Wolters 3.5% 3.4% 6.4% 8.2% 8.6% 9.2% 8.4% 11.3% 12.7% 9.8% 9.6% 6.3% 2.6%
Soren Walljasper 4.9% 6.9% 7.5% 8.5% 10.9% 10.6% 10.5% 10.2% 10.2% 8.5% 6.9% 3.0% 1.4%
Kyle Burgess 10.6% 12.6% 13.4% 12.8% 11.0% 12.2% 10.5% 7.3% 4.1% 3.0% 1.8% 0.6% 0.1%
Clayton Sasaki 3.8% 5.7% 4.7% 8.6% 7.7% 8.2% 9.9% 10.7% 10.3% 12.1% 7.9% 7.7% 2.7%
Jimmy Madigan 11.7% 12.1% 11.9% 12.9% 13.0% 11.7% 9.3% 6.7% 5.9% 3.0% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1%
Rory Mess 1.6% 2.2% 2.0% 2.3% 4.0% 2.7% 3.6% 6.2% 8.6% 10.8% 12.7% 21.1% 22.2%
Allison Price 1.9% 3.4% 4.1% 3.8% 4.0% 5.8% 6.7% 9.4% 10.1% 12.3% 15.4% 12.9% 10.2%
Jacob Bruce 2.0% 3.7% 3.4% 3.9% 4.1% 5.9% 7.7% 9.8% 10.3% 12.8% 11.9% 12.9% 11.6%
Jacob Spracher 8.0% 10.5% 11.0% 11.9% 11.1% 12.7% 11.3% 7.6% 7.7% 4.4% 2.2% 1.0% 0.6%
Padraig Loughlin 1.5% 2.4% 3.3% 3.6% 5.1% 4.8% 7.5% 8.0% 9.1% 11.8% 14.5% 14.5% 13.9%
Nicole Edwards 0.8% 1.0% 1.6% 2.0% 2.3% 2.6% 4.2% 3.9% 5.9% 8.4% 13.8% 19.0% 34.5%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.