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📊 Prediction Accuracy
13.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
23
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.72+2.63vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara2.06+3.19vs Predicted
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3California State University Monterey Bay0.14+8.83vs Predicted
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4University of California at Berkeley-0.40+9.73vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara1.46+2.12vs Predicted
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6University of California at Berkeley1.62+0.68vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara2.88-3.77vs Predicted
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8California State University Monterey Bay0.14+3.83vs Predicted
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10University of Hawaii1.03-1.65vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.18-3.12vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley0.92-3.02vs Predicted
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13University of California at Los Angeles0.58-2.96vs Predicted
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14Arizona State University1.14-5.82vs Predicted
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15Arizona State University-0.69-0.29vs Predicted
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16University of California at Berkeley0.38-5.21vs Predicted
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17University of California at San Diego0.43-6.45vs Predicted
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18California State University Monterey Bay0.14-6.17vs Predicted
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19University of California at San Diego-1.18-2.86vs Predicted
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20University of California at Los Angeles-1.09-4.13vs Predicted
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21University of California at San Diego-1.73-3.14vs Predicted
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22University of California at Davis-2.35-2.97vs Predicted
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23University of California at Los Angeles-1.87-4.98vs Predicted
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24Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.33-10.80vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.63University of California at Santa Barbara2.720.2%1st Place
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5.19University of California at Santa Barbara2.060.1%1st Place
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11.83California State University Monterey Bay0.140.0%1st Place
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13.73University of California at Berkeley-0.400.0%1st Place
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7.12University of California at Santa Barbara1.460.1%1st Place
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6.68University of California at Berkeley1.620.1%1st Place
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3.23University of California at Santa Barbara2.880.3%1st Place
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11.83California State University Monterey Bay0.140.0%1st Place
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8.35University of Hawaii1.030.0%1st Place
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7.88Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.180.0%1st Place
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8.98University of California at Berkeley0.920.0%1st Place
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10.04University of California at Los Angeles0.580.0%1st Place
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8.18Arizona State University1.140.0%1st Place
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14.71Arizona State University-0.690.0%1st Place
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10.79University of California at Berkeley0.380.0%1st Place
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10.55University of California at San Diego0.430.0%1st Place
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11.83California State University Monterey Bay0.140.0%1st Place
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16.14University of California at San Diego-1.180.0%1st Place
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15.87University of California at Los Angeles-1.090.0%1st Place
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17.86University of California at San Diego-1.730.0%1st Place
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19.03University of California at Davis-2.350.0%1st Place
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18.02University of California at Los Angeles-1.870.0%1st Place
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13.2Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.330.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sterling Henken | 20.8% | 19.3% | 15.5% | 13.7% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Godfrey | 10.5% | 12.9% | 12.5% | 9.8% | 11.7% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alicia Ward | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Brown | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 11.9% | 10.8% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Remy Margerum | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyra Oakes | 6.1% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Weis | 25.8% | 20.3% | 16.3% | 12.7% | 10.7% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alicia Ward | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Magnussen | 4.5% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grace Carrick | 4.6% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Markowitz | 3.4% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Wyman | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Smith | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Henry | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 10.4% | 13.1% | 12.4% | 9.9% | 6.1% | 1.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexandre Mutricy | 2.5% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Yan Rui Goheen | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alicia Ward | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Luu | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 9.3% | 10.9% | 14.8% | 14.3% | 13.8% | 6.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erin Kelly | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 13.4% | 13.6% | 13.7% | 10.3% | 5.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ismael Munoz | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 4.8% | 8.2% | 13.8% | 17.0% | 19.4% | 20.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marissa Huston | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 10.8% | 21.5% | 42.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mert Can Pestilci | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 10.5% | 18.1% | 21.2% | 21.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andreas Balslev | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 11.7% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.