← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
30.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
23
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1University of California at Santa Barbara2.88+2.34vs Predicted
-
2University of California at Berkeley0.92+7.09vs Predicted
-
3California State University Monterey Bay0.56+7.50vs Predicted
-
4University of Hawaii1.03+4.63vs Predicted
-
5University of California at Berkeley1.62+1.68vs Predicted
-
6University of California at Santa Barbara2.72-2.32vs Predicted
-
7University of California at Santa Barbara2.06-1.80vs Predicted
-
9Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.18-1.11vs Predicted
-
10California State University Monterey Bay0.56+0.50vs Predicted
-
11University of California at Los Angeles0.58-0.69vs Predicted
-
12Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.33+1.65vs Predicted
-
13University of California at Santa Barbara1.46-5.96vs Predicted
-
14Arizona State University1.14-5.66vs Predicted
-
15California State University Monterey Bay0.56-4.50vs Predicted
-
16University of California at Berkeley0.38-4.82vs Predicted
-
17University of California at San Diego-1.18-0.49vs Predicted
-
18University of California at Berkeley-0.40-4.20vs Predicted
-
19University of California at San Diego0.43-8.10vs Predicted
-
20University of California at Los Angeles-1.09-3.82vs Predicted
-
21University of California at Los Angeles-1.87-2.47vs Predicted
-
22Arizona State University-0.69-7.03vs Predicted
-
23University of California at Davis-1.23-6.30vs Predicted
-
24University of California at San Diego-1.73-6.12vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
3.34University of California at Santa Barbara2.880.2%1st Place
-
9.09University of California at Berkeley0.920.0%1st Place
-
10.5California State University Monterey Bay0.560.0%1st Place
-
8.63University of Hawaii1.030.0%1st Place
-
6.68University of California at Berkeley1.620.1%1st Place
-
3.68University of California at Santa Barbara2.720.2%1st Place
-
5.2University of California at Santa Barbara2.060.1%1st Place
-
7.89Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.180.1%1st Place
-
10.5California State University Monterey Bay0.560.0%1st Place
-
10.31University of California at Los Angeles0.580.0%1st Place
-
13.65Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.330.0%1st Place
-
7.04University of California at Santa Barbara1.460.1%1st Place
-
8.34Arizona State University1.140.0%1st Place
-
10.5California State University Monterey Bay0.560.0%1st Place
-
11.18University of California at Berkeley0.380.0%1st Place
-
16.51University of California at San Diego-1.180.0%1st Place
-
13.8University of California at Berkeley-0.400.0%1st Place
-
10.9University of California at San Diego0.430.0%1st Place
-
16.18University of California at Los Angeles-1.090.0%1st Place
-
18.53University of California at Los Angeles-1.870.0%1st Place
-
14.97Arizona State University-0.690.0%1st Place
-
16.7University of California at Davis-1.230.0%1st Place
-
17.88University of California at San Diego-1.730.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Weis | 24.1% | 20.1% | 17.4% | 12.8% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 4.9% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Markowitz | 3.7% | 2.9% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Schmidt | 1.7% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Magnussen | 2.9% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyra Oakes | 6.9% | 9.7% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 10.7% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sterling Henken | 20.7% | 17.8% | 15.2% | 14.1% | 11.7% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Godfrey | 11.9% | 11.9% | 11.4% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 11.0% | 10.6% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grace Carrick | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Schmidt | 1.7% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Wyman | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andreas Balslev | 1.0% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 12.1% | 11.4% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Remy Margerum | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Smith | 4.4% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Schmidt | 1.7% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexandre Mutricy | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Luu | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 11.3% | 12.8% | 14.4% | 14.8% | 10.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Brown | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 5.2% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Yan Rui Goheen | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erin Kelly | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 10.7% | 14.9% | 14.3% | 11.8% | 8.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mert Can Pestilci | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 9.0% | 10.7% | 19.6% | 36.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Henry | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 11.3% | 12.0% | 12.1% | 9.8% | 7.1% | 4.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Juan Kara | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 10.2% | 11.6% | 15.5% | 15.2% | 11.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ismael Munoz | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 9.5% | 14.7% | 20.2% | 24.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.