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📊 Prediction Accuracy
13.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
23
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.88+2.31vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara2.72+1.56vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara2.06+2.19vs Predicted
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5Arizona State University1.14+3.12vs Predicted
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6University of Hawaii1.03+2.62vs Predicted
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7California State University Monterey Bay0.14+5.11vs Predicted
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8University of California at Berkeley0.92+0.89vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley0.38+1.84vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Barbara1.46-2.99vs Predicted
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11University of California at Berkeley1.62-4.41vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.18-4.06vs Predicted
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13University of California at Los Angeles0.58-2.68vs Predicted
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14University of California at Davis-1.23+2.68vs Predicted
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15University of California at San Diego0.43-4.22vs Predicted
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16University of California at Berkeley-0.40-2.34vs Predicted
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17California State University Monterey Bay0.14-4.89vs Predicted
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18California State University Monterey Bay0.14-5.89vs Predicted
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19Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.33-5.43vs Predicted
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20University of California at San Diego-1.18-3.64vs Predicted
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21Arizona State University-0.69-5.95vs Predicted
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22University of California at Los Angeles-1.09-5.77vs Predicted
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23University of California at San Diego-1.73-5.02vs Predicted
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24University of California at Los Angeles-1.87-5.81vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.31University of California at Santa Barbara2.880.3%1st Place
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3.56University of California at Santa Barbara2.720.2%1st Place
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5.19University of California at Santa Barbara2.060.1%1st Place
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8.12Arizona State University1.140.0%1st Place
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8.62University of Hawaii1.030.0%1st Place
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12.11California State University Monterey Bay0.140.0%1st Place
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8.89University of California at Berkeley0.920.0%1st Place
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10.84University of California at Berkeley0.380.0%1st Place
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7.01University of California at Santa Barbara1.460.1%1st Place
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6.59University of California at Berkeley1.620.1%1st Place
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7.94Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.180.1%1st Place
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10.32University of California at Los Angeles0.580.0%1st Place
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16.68University of California at Davis-1.230.0%1st Place
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10.78University of California at San Diego0.430.0%1st Place
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13.66University of California at Berkeley-0.400.0%1st Place
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12.11California State University Monterey Bay0.140.0%1st Place
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12.11California State University Monterey Bay0.140.0%1st Place
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13.57Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.330.0%1st Place
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16.36University of California at San Diego-1.180.0%1st Place
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15.05Arizona State University-0.690.0%1st Place
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16.23University of California at Los Angeles-1.090.0%1st Place
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17.98University of California at San Diego-1.730.0%1st Place
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18.19University of California at Los Angeles-1.870.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Weis | 25.7% | 18.3% | 17.1% | 14.3% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sterling Henken | 22.6% | 17.9% | 16.5% | 12.1% | 10.6% | 8.5% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Godfrey | 9.2% | 12.3% | 11.3% | 13.3% | 12.0% | 11.0% | 9.2% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Smith | 4.1% | 3.4% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Magnussen | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alicia Ward | 1.1% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Markowitz | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexandre Mutricy | 3.0% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Remy Margerum | 5.5% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyra Oakes | 7.5% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grace Carrick | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Wyman | 1.6% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Juan Kara | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 14.2% | 14.0% | 16.2% | 11.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Yan Rui Goheen | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Brown | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 1.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alicia Ward | 1.1% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alicia Ward | 1.1% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andreas Balslev | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 11.7% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Luu | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 12.2% | 15.1% | 13.1% | 11.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Henry | 0.7% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 3.3% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 12.1% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 3.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erin Kelly | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 11.9% | 11.7% | 14.0% | 13.1% | 9.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ismael Munoz | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 13.9% | 17.2% | 28.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mert Can Pestilci | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 8.4% | 13.3% | 19.3% | 31.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.