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📊 Prediction Accuracy
34.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
23
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.88+2.32vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara2.72+1.64vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara1.46+4.10vs Predicted
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4University of California at Berkeley1.62+2.64vs Predicted
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6University of California at Berkeley0.92+3.10vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara2.06-1.64vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.18-0.01vs Predicted
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9Arizona State University1.14-0.92vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.33+3.60vs Predicted
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11University of California at Los Angeles0.58-0.62vs Predicted
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12California State University Monterey Bay0.56-1.74vs Predicted
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13University of Hawaii1.03-4.34vs Predicted
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14University of California at Berkeley0.38-2.84vs Predicted
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15University of California at Los Angeles-1.09+1.20vs Predicted
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16California State University Monterey Bay0.56-5.74vs Predicted
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17California State University Monterey Bay0.56-6.74vs Predicted
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18University of California at Davis-1.23-1.52vs Predicted
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19University of California at Berkeley-0.40-5.10vs Predicted
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20University of California at San Diego0.43-9.25vs Predicted
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21Arizona State University-0.83-5.35vs Predicted
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22University of California at Los Angeles-1.87-3.61vs Predicted
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23University of California at San Diego-1.18-6.50vs Predicted
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24University of California at San Diego-1.73-6.16vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.32University of California at Santa Barbara2.880.2%1st Place
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3.64University of California at Santa Barbara2.720.2%1st Place
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7.1University of California at Santa Barbara1.460.1%1st Place
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6.64University of California at Berkeley1.620.1%1st Place
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9.1University of California at Berkeley0.920.0%1st Place
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5.36University of California at Santa Barbara2.060.1%1st Place
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7.99Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.180.1%1st Place
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8.08Arizona State University1.140.0%1st Place
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13.6Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.330.0%1st Place
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10.38University of California at Los Angeles0.580.0%1st Place
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10.26California State University Monterey Bay0.560.0%1st Place
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8.66University of Hawaii1.030.0%1st Place
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11.16University of California at Berkeley0.380.0%1st Place
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16.2University of California at Los Angeles-1.090.0%1st Place
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10.26California State University Monterey Bay0.560.0%1st Place
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10.26California State University Monterey Bay0.560.0%1st Place
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16.48University of California at Davis-1.230.0%1st Place
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13.9University of California at Berkeley-0.400.0%1st Place
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10.75University of California at San Diego0.430.0%1st Place
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15.65Arizona State University-0.830.0%1st Place
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18.39University of California at Los Angeles-1.870.0%1st Place
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16.5University of California at San Diego-1.180.0%1st Place
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17.84University of California at San Diego-1.730.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Weis | 24.6% | 20.7% | 16.9% | 12.0% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sterling Henken | 21.6% | 18.4% | 15.7% | 13.1% | 10.7% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Remy Margerum | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyra Oakes | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 10.6% | 10.1% | 12.2% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Markowitz | 3.8% | 3.2% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Godfrey | 9.6% | 11.6% | 12.9% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grace Carrick | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Smith | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andreas Balslev | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 11.0% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Wyman | 2.6% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Schmidt | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Magnussen | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexandre Mutricy | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 10.6% | 6.6% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erin Kelly | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 11.2% | 14.1% | 12.6% | 12.8% | 9.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Schmidt | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Schmidt | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Juan Kara | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 13.4% | 15.8% | 11.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Brown | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 12.1% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Yan Rui Goheen | 2.6% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 11.2% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Elvig | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 12.1% | 12.4% | 12.2% | 9.4% | 6.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mert Can Pestilci | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 13.2% | 19.7% | 33.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Luu | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 12.4% | 13.0% | 14.2% | 12.5% | 11.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ismael Munoz | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 10.3% | 14.0% | 20.0% | 24.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.