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📊 Prediction Accuracy
39.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
23
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.72+2.66vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara2.06+3.30vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara2.88+0.25vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.18+4.08vs Predicted
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5University of Hawaii1.03+3.72vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Barbara1.46+1.32vs Predicted
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7California State University Monterey Bay0.56+3.31vs Predicted
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8Arizona State University1.14+0.12vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley1.62-3.45vs Predicted
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11University of California at Berkeley0.92-1.87vs Predicted
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12University of California at Los Angeles0.58-1.75vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego0.43-2.07vs Predicted
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14California State University Monterey Bay0.56-3.69vs Predicted
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15Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.33-1.19vs Predicted
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16Arizona State University-0.69-1.06vs Predicted
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17University of California at Davis-1.23-0.48vs Predicted
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18California State University Monterey Bay0.56-7.69vs Predicted
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19University of California at Los Angeles-1.09-2.85vs Predicted
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20University of California at Los Angeles-1.87-1.68vs Predicted
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21University of California at San Diego-1.18-4.28vs Predicted
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22University of California at Berkeley0.38-10.87vs Predicted
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23University of California at Berkeley-0.40-9.04vs Predicted
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24University of California at San Diego-1.73-6.15vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.66University of California at Santa Barbara2.720.2%1st Place
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5.3University of California at Santa Barbara2.060.1%1st Place
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3.25University of California at Santa Barbara2.880.2%1st Place
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8.08Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.180.0%1st Place
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8.72University of Hawaii1.030.0%1st Place
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7.32University of California at Santa Barbara1.460.1%1st Place
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10.31California State University Monterey Bay0.560.0%1st Place
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8.12Arizona State University1.140.1%1st Place
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6.55University of California at Berkeley1.620.1%1st Place
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9.13University of California at Berkeley0.920.0%1st Place
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10.25University of California at Los Angeles0.580.0%1st Place
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10.93University of California at San Diego0.430.0%1st Place
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10.31California State University Monterey Bay0.560.0%1st Place
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13.81Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.330.0%1st Place
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14.94Arizona State University-0.690.0%1st Place
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16.52University of California at Davis-1.230.0%1st Place
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10.31California State University Monterey Bay0.560.0%1st Place
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16.15University of California at Los Angeles-1.090.0%1st Place
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18.32University of California at Los Angeles-1.870.0%1st Place
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16.72University of California at San Diego-1.180.0%1st Place
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11.13University of California at Berkeley0.380.0%1st Place
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13.96University of California at Berkeley-0.400.0%1st Place
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17.85University of California at San Diego-1.730.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sterling Henken | 21.1% | 18.9% | 16.3% | 12.5% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Godfrey | 11.2% | 11.6% | 11.9% | 10.5% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Weis | 24.5% | 19.6% | 18.1% | 12.3% | 10.6% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grace Carrick | 4.2% | 3.1% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Magnussen | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Remy Margerum | 5.0% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Schmidt | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Smith | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyra Oakes | 6.3% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Markowitz | 3.5% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Wyman | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Yan Rui Goheen | 1.7% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Schmidt | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andreas Balslev | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 12.1% | 10.7% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Henry | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 13.5% | 11.7% | 6.7% | 2.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Juan Kara | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 11.3% | 13.1% | 14.8% | 13.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Schmidt | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erin Kelly | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 12.9% | 13.5% | 12.6% | 9.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mert Can Pestilci | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 12.8% | 18.6% | 35.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Luu | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 12.6% | 15.3% | 16.4% | 10.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexandre Mutricy | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Brown | 0.8% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 11.2% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 1.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ismael Munoz | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 13.0% | 21.1% | 24.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.