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📊 Prediction Accuracy
39.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
23
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.21+3.10vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara3.09+0.53vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara2.44+0.60vs Predicted
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5California Poly Maritime Academy1.58+0.56vs Predicted
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6University of California at Berkeley1.09+1.07vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley1.02+0.34vs Predicted
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8California State University Monterey Bay-0.57+4.50vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley0.01+1.34vs Predicted
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10California State University Monterey Bay-0.57+2.50vs Predicted
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11University of California at Berkeley0.31-1.55vs Predicted
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12Arizona State University-1.11+2.59vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego-1.01+1.13vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Barbara1.18-7.23vs Predicted
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15University of California at Davis-1.32+0.42vs Predicted
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16University of California at Los Angeles-0.60-3.29vs Predicted
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17University of California at San Diego-0.62-4.33vs Predicted
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18University of California at Los Angeles-0.23-6.56vs Predicted
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19Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.74-5.83vs Predicted
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20California State University Monterey Bay-0.57-7.50vs Predicted
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21Arizona State University-2.06-3.22vs Predicted
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22University of California at Los Angeles-1.12-7.32vs Predicted
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23University of California at San Diego-2.17-5.13vs Predicted
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24Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.99-6.71vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.1University of California at Santa Barbara2.210.2%1st Place
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2.53University of California at Santa Barbara3.090.3%1st Place
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3.6University of California at Santa Barbara2.440.2%1st Place
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5.56California Poly Maritime Academy1.580.1%1st Place
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7.07University of California at Berkeley1.090.0%1st Place
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7.34University of California at Berkeley1.020.0%1st Place
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12.5California State University Monterey Bay-0.570.0%1st Place
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10.34University of California at Berkeley0.010.0%1st Place
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12.5California State University Monterey Bay-0.570.0%1st Place
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9.45University of California at Berkeley0.310.0%1st Place
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14.59Arizona State University-1.110.0%1st Place
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14.13University of California at San Diego-1.010.0%1st Place
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6.77University of California at Santa Barbara1.180.0%1st Place
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15.42University of California at Davis-1.320.0%1st Place
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12.71University of California at Los Angeles-0.600.0%1st Place
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12.67University of California at San Diego-0.620.0%1st Place
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11.44University of California at Los Angeles-0.230.0%1st Place
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13.17Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.740.0%1st Place
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12.5California State University Monterey Bay-0.570.0%1st Place
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17.78Arizona State University-2.060.0%1st Place
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14.68University of California at Los Angeles-1.120.0%1st Place
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17.87University of California at San Diego-2.170.0%1st Place
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17.29Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.990.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Schiff | 15.1% | 15.9% | 16.1% | 13.2% | 13.0% | 9.8% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Neil Stapleton | 34.4% | 24.8% | 18.4% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tristram Craig | 17.4% | 19.1% | 16.8% | 15.9% | 12.4% | 8.8% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Gunnell | 7.1% | 7.8% | 11.5% | 12.4% | 13.7% | 12.4% | 11.2% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eric Witte | 4.6% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cole Fargo | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Levi Matsushima | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Greg Martin | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Levi Matsushima | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Anderson | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conor McGee | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Shannon Frick | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 3.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Burrow | 4.8% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 10.1% | 11.4% | 9.7% | 11.0% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 8.1% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brian Joseph | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 12.8% | 9.8% | 6.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Lindberg | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grant Lin | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Beutter | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 11.1% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kevin McManus | 1.0% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Levi Matsushima | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexandra Heisler | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 11.7% | 20.2% | 26.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Natalie Barnette | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Oliver Kelton | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 11.5% | 18.7% | 28.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Kirkpatrick | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 10.1% | 12.7% | 20.1% | 20.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.