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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
23
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.21+3.10vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara2.44+1.63vs Predicted
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3California Poly Maritime Academy1.58+2.56vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara1.18+2.71vs Predicted
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5University of California at Berkeley1.09+2.07vs Predicted
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6University of California at Berkeley1.02+1.38vs Predicted
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8Arizona State University-1.11+6.57vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley0.31+0.35vs Predicted
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10California State University Monterey Bay-0.57+2.61vs Predicted
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11University of California at Berkeley0.01-0.42vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Barbara3.09-9.50vs Predicted
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13University of California at Los Angeles-0.60-0.08vs Predicted
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14University of California at Davis-1.32+1.54vs Predicted
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15California State University Monterey Bay-0.57-2.39vs Predicted
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16California State University Monterey Bay-0.57-3.39vs Predicted
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17University of California at Los Angeles-1.12-2.31vs Predicted
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18University of California at Los Angeles-0.23-6.66vs Predicted
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19University of California at San Diego-1.01-4.70vs Predicted
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20Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.74-6.78vs Predicted
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21University of California at San Diego-0.62-7.86vs Predicted
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22Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.99-4.43vs Predicted
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23University of California at San Diego-2.17-4.99vs Predicted
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24Arizona State University-1.62-7.78vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.1University of California at Santa Barbara2.210.1%1st Place
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3.63University of California at Santa Barbara2.440.2%1st Place
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5.56California Poly Maritime Academy1.580.1%1st Place
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6.71University of California at Santa Barbara1.180.0%1st Place
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7.07University of California at Berkeley1.090.0%1st Place
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7.38University of California at Berkeley1.020.0%1st Place
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14.57Arizona State University-1.110.0%1st Place
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9.35University of California at Berkeley0.310.0%1st Place
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12.61California State University Monterey Bay-0.570.0%1st Place
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10.58University of California at Berkeley0.010.0%1st Place
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2.5University of California at Santa Barbara3.090.3%1st Place
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12.92University of California at Los Angeles-0.600.0%1st Place
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15.54University of California at Davis-1.320.0%1st Place
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12.61California State University Monterey Bay-0.570.0%1st Place
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12.61California State University Monterey Bay-0.570.0%1st Place
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14.69University of California at Los Angeles-1.120.0%1st Place
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11.34University of California at Los Angeles-0.230.0%1st Place
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14.3University of California at San Diego-1.010.0%1st Place
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13.22Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.740.0%1st Place
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13.14University of California at San Diego-0.620.0%1st Place
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17.57Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.990.0%1st Place
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18.01University of California at San Diego-2.170.0%1st Place
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16.22Arizona State University-1.620.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Schiff | 14.3% | 16.2% | 16.6% | 13.6% | 12.6% | 9.6% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tristram Craig | 18.3% | 18.6% | 16.6% | 16.4% | 11.4% | 8.0% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Gunnell | 6.7% | 8.9% | 10.9% | 12.4% | 13.7% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Burrow | 4.5% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 13.1% | 11.1% | 11.3% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eric Witte | 4.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cole Fargo | 3.7% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conor McGee | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Anderson | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Levi Matsushima | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Greg Martin | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Neil Stapleton | 34.9% | 24.1% | 18.5% | 10.6% | 6.5% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Lindberg | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brian Joseph | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 11.7% | 10.6% | 12.4% | 7.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Levi Matsushima | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Levi Matsushima | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Natalie Barnette | 0.2% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 7.3% | 4.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Beutter | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Shannon Frick | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 10.6% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 3.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kevin McManus | 1.3% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grant Lin | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 9.8% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Kirkpatrick | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 13.3% | 17.8% | 25.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Oliver Kelton | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 11.3% | 16.4% | 34.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hunter Jones | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 10.9% | 12.6% | 13.9% | 12.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.