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📊 Prediction Accuracy
54.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland0.83+3.01vs Predicted
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2University of Vermont0.24+3.25vs Predicted
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3Christopher Newport University-0.84+2.35vs Predicted
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4North Carolina State University0.01+1.39vs Predicted
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5George Washington University0.47-0.81vs Predicted
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6Connecticut College0.52-0.33vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College-0.52-0.53vs Predicted
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8Clemson University0.12-3.81vs Predicted
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9William and Mary-0.21-3.08vs Predicted
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10University of Maryland-1.87-0.87vs Predicted
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11Washington College-3.22-0.57vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.01St. Mary's College of Maryland0.8316.7%1st Place
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5.25University of Vermont0.249.6%1st Place
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5.35Christopher Newport University-0.849.7%1st Place
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5.39North Carolina State University0.019.4%1st Place
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4.19George Washington University0.4717.2%1st Place
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5.67Connecticut College0.528.2%1st Place
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6.47SUNY Maritime College-0.524.8%1st Place
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4.19Clemson University0.1215.7%1st Place
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5.92William and Mary-0.217.1%1st Place
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9.13University of Maryland-1.871.2%1st Place
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10.43Washington College-3.220.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lina Carper | 16.7% | 15.3% | 14.9% | 14.1% | 11.9% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Caitlin Derby | 9.6% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 13.1% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 4.3% | 0.2% |
| Laura Smith | 9.7% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 11.0% | 12.1% | 10.8% | 12.2% | 10.5% | 3.5% | 0.4% |
| Lyla Solway | 9.4% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 10.0% | 5.6% | 0.4% |
| Hayden Clary | 17.2% | 14.1% | 13.2% | 13.0% | 12.4% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Izzy Wu-Karr | 8.2% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 11.6% | 12.2% | 12.8% | 13.0% | 5.0% | 0.2% |
| Nicole Ostapowicz | 4.8% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 10.7% | 14.2% | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.6% |
| Ashton Loring | 15.7% | 14.6% | 14.1% | 13.5% | 12.1% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 3.7% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Charlotte Stillman | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 11.8% | 12.4% | 14.9% | 6.9% | 0.8% |
| Emma Retzlaff | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 6.2% | 10.0% | 47.2% | 20.4% |
| Nora Beebe | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 3.0% | 14.6% | 75.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.