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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
23
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara3.09+1.50vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara2.44+0.64vs Predicted
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4California Poly Maritime Academy1.58+1.55vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara2.21-0.98vs Predicted
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6California State University Monterey Bay-0.57+6.61vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley1.09+0.08vs Predicted
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8University of California at Berkeley1.02-0.91vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley0.01+1.35vs Predicted
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10University of California at Los Angeles-0.23+1.30vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego-0.62+1.79vs Predicted
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12University of California at Los Angeles-1.12+2.47vs Predicted
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13University of California at Berkeley0.31-3.51vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Barbara1.18-7.24vs Predicted
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15California State University Monterey Bay-0.57-2.39vs Predicted
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16Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.74-2.81vs Predicted
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17University of California at Los Angeles-0.60-4.53vs Predicted
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18University of California at Davis-2.21-0.25vs Predicted
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19California State University Monterey Bay-0.57-6.39vs Predicted
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20Arizona State University-1.11-5.58vs Predicted
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21Arizona State University-1.62-4.58vs Predicted
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22Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.99-4.66vs Predicted
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23University of California at San Diego-2.17-5.19vs Predicted
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24University of California at San Diego-1.01-10.06vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.5University of California at Santa Barbara3.090.4%1st Place
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3.64University of California at Santa Barbara2.440.2%1st Place
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5.55California Poly Maritime Academy1.580.1%1st Place
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4.02University of California at Santa Barbara2.210.1%1st Place
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12.61California State University Monterey Bay-0.570.0%1st Place
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7.08University of California at Berkeley1.090.0%1st Place
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7.09University of California at Berkeley1.020.1%1st Place
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10.35University of California at Berkeley0.010.0%1st Place
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11.3University of California at Los Angeles-0.230.0%1st Place
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12.79University of California at San Diego-0.620.0%1st Place
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14.47University of California at Los Angeles-1.120.0%1st Place
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9.49University of California at Berkeley0.310.0%1st Place
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6.76University of California at Santa Barbara1.180.1%1st Place
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12.61California State University Monterey Bay-0.570.0%1st Place
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13.19Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.740.0%1st Place
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12.47University of California at Los Angeles-0.600.0%1st Place
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17.75University of California at Davis-2.210.0%1st Place
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12.61California State University Monterey Bay-0.570.0%1st Place
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14.42Arizona State University-1.110.0%1st Place
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16.42Arizona State University-1.620.0%1st Place
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17.34Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.990.0%1st Place
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17.81University of California at San Diego-2.170.0%1st Place
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13.94University of California at San Diego-1.010.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neil Stapleton | 35.7% | 25.3% | 15.4% | 10.8% | 6.6% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tristram Craig | 18.7% | 17.9% | 16.7% | 14.9% | 12.2% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Gunnell | 6.6% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 12.8% | 12.8% | 12.3% | 11.4% | 9.2% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Schiff | 13.0% | 16.4% | 17.0% | 16.0% | 13.7% | 9.8% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Levi Matsushima | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 10.1% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eric Witte | 3.7% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 10.3% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cole Fargo | 5.2% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 11.0% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Greg Martin | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Beutter | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grant Lin | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Natalie Barnette | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Anderson | 1.6% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Burrow | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 11.7% | 11.9% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Levi Matsushima | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 10.1% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kevin McManus | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Lindberg | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexandra LaBouff | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 9.8% | 11.9% | 20.1% | 26.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Levi Matsushima | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 10.1% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conor McGee | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 6.5% | 2.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hunter Jones | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 10.9% | 12.5% | 14.5% | 12.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Kirkpatrick | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 14.3% | 17.4% | 20.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Oliver Kelton | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 11.5% | 19.4% | 27.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Shannon Frick | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.