← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
30.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
23
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1University of California at Santa Barbara2.44+2.58vs Predicted
-
2University of California at Santa Barbara2.21+2.06vs Predicted
-
3University of California at Santa Barbara1.18+3.62vs Predicted
-
5California Poly Maritime Academy1.58+0.49vs Predicted
-
6University of California at Santa Barbara3.09-3.48vs Predicted
-
7University of California at Berkeley1.09-0.07vs Predicted
-
8California State University Monterey Bay-0.57+4.13vs Predicted
-
9University of California at Berkeley1.02-2.17vs Predicted
-
10University of California at Berkeley0.01+0.17vs Predicted
-
11University of California at Los Angeles-0.23+0.06vs Predicted
-
12Arizona State University-1.11+2.00vs Predicted
-
13University of California at Berkeley0.31-3.73vs Predicted
-
14University of California at Los Angeles-0.66-1.36vs Predicted
-
15California State University Monterey Bay-0.57-2.87vs Predicted
-
16University of California at San Diego-1.01-2.23vs Predicted
-
17University of California at Los Angeles-1.12-3.04vs Predicted
-
18Arizona State University-2.06-0.91vs Predicted
-
19Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.74-6.25vs Predicted
-
20University of California at San Diego-2.17-2.31vs Predicted
-
21California State University Monterey Bay-0.57-8.87vs Predicted
-
22University of California at Davis-2.21-4.37vs Predicted
-
23University of California at San Diego-1.68-6.99vs Predicted
-
24Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.99-7.19vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
3.58University of California at Santa Barbara2.440.2%1st Place
-
4.06University of California at Santa Barbara2.210.1%1st Place
-
6.62University of California at Santa Barbara1.180.0%1st Place
-
5.49California Poly Maritime Academy1.580.1%1st Place
-
2.52University of California at Santa Barbara3.090.3%1st Place
-
6.93University of California at Berkeley1.090.0%1st Place
-
12.13California State University Monterey Bay-0.570.0%1st Place
-
6.83University of California at Berkeley1.020.1%1st Place
-
10.17University of California at Berkeley0.010.0%1st Place
-
11.06University of California at Los Angeles-0.230.0%1st Place
-
14.0Arizona State University-1.110.0%1st Place
-
9.27University of California at Berkeley0.310.0%1st Place
-
12.64University of California at Los Angeles-0.660.0%1st Place
-
12.13California State University Monterey Bay-0.570.0%1st Place
-
13.77University of California at San Diego-1.010.0%1st Place
-
13.96University of California at Los Angeles-1.120.0%1st Place
-
17.09Arizona State University-2.060.0%1st Place
-
12.75Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.740.0%1st Place
-
17.69University of California at San Diego-2.170.0%1st Place
-
12.13California State University Monterey Bay-0.570.0%1st Place
-
17.63University of California at Davis-2.210.0%1st Place
-
16.01University of California at San Diego-1.680.0%1st Place
-
16.81Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.990.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tristram Craig | 18.8% | 19.0% | 16.4% | 16.1% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Schiff | 14.4% | 16.2% | 15.5% | 15.0% | 13.1% | 10.3% | 6.8% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Burrow | 4.1% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 11.5% | 12.4% | 11.3% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Gunnell | 6.8% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 13.4% | 12.7% | 13.4% | 10.7% | 8.3% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Neil Stapleton | 33.9% | 25.0% | 18.1% | 10.3% | 6.7% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eric Witte | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Levi Matsushima | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cole Fargo | 5.7% | 5.6% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 10.9% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Greg Martin | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Beutter | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conor McGee | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Anderson | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cullen Quine | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 10.9% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Levi Matsushima | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Shannon Frick | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Natalie Barnette | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 5.2% | 1.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexandra Heisler | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 9.2% | 10.9% | 13.3% | 16.8% | 18.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kevin McManus | 1.0% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Oliver Kelton | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 13.0% | 19.0% | 24.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Levi Matsushima | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexandra LaBouff | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 7.8% | 13.2% | 11.4% | 16.4% | 24.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Diego Gomes | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 10.8% | 12.1% | 9.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Kirkpatrick | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 11.7% | 15.0% | 15.3% | 14.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.