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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Eckerd College2.80+9.60vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.72+4.95vs Predicted
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3Brown University3.64+4.27vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College3.83+2.30vs Predicted
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5Stanford University3.44+2.80vs Predicted
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6Boston College3.48+1.70vs Predicted
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7Salve Regina University2.45+4.86vs Predicted
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8Harvard University3.05+1.27vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University3.95-3.16vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island3.05-0.30vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland3.69-3.98vs Predicted
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12Washington College2.84-1.37vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College2.59-1.84vs Predicted
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14McGill University1.67+0.20vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College1.87-1.11vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.82-5.55vs Predicted
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17University of California at Santa Barbara2.29-4.41vs Predicted
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18Tufts University3.41-10.25vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.6Eckerd College2.800.0%1st Place
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6.95Yale University3.720.1%1st Place
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7.27Brown University3.640.1%1st Place
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6.3Dartmouth College3.830.1%1st Place
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7.8Stanford University3.440.1%1st Place
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7.7Boston College3.480.1%1st Place
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11.86Salve Regina University2.450.0%1st Place
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9.27Harvard University3.050.1%1st Place
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5.84Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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9.7University of Rhode Island3.050.1%1st Place
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7.02St. Mary's College of Maryland3.690.1%1st Place
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10.63Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
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11.16Connecticut College2.590.0%1st Place
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14.2McGill University1.670.0%1st Place
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13.89SUNY Maritime College1.870.0%1st Place
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10.45U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.820.0%1st Place
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12.59University of California at Santa Barbara2.290.0%1st Place
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7.75Tufts University3.410.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason D'Agostino | 4.0% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 5.4% |
| Joseph Kiss | 6.7% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Lucas Adams | 7.9% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Deirdre Lambert | 11.2% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Axel Sly | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Harry Koeppel | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| John Silvestri | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 11.0% | 10.7% | 8.3% |
| Michael Drumm | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 1.6% |
| William Macdonald | 10.6% | 12.7% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Caleb Armstrong | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 2.0% |
| Bradley Adam | 8.7% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Ryan Bailey | 3.3% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 3.6% |
| Ellis Tonissi | 4.1% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 6.2% |
| Yann Cudennec | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 15.0% | 30.0% |
| Arthur Libby | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 10.9% | 15.9% | 24.2% |
| Max Neubelt | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 3.8% |
| Simone Staff | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 9.5% | 11.2% | 13.7% | 12.8% |
| Dan Nickerson | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.