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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Washington College2.84+9.51vs Predicted
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2Eckerd College2.80+8.70vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College3.83+3.54vs Predicted
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4Connecticut College2.59+7.16vs Predicted
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5Stanford University3.44+2.82vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University3.95-0.07vs Predicted
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7Yale University3.72-0.26vs Predicted
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8Brown University3.64-0.94vs Predicted
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9Boston College3.48-1.41vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland3.69-2.88vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island3.05-1.35vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College1.87+2.16vs Predicted
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13Harvard University3.05-3.70vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.82-3.92vs Predicted
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15Tufts University3.41-7.12vs Predicted
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16University of California at Santa Barbara2.29-3.44vs Predicted
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17McGill University1.67-2.44vs Predicted
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18Salve Regina University2.45-6.35vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.51Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
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10.7Eckerd College2.800.0%1st Place
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6.54Dartmouth College3.830.1%1st Place
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11.16Connecticut College2.590.0%1st Place
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7.82Stanford University3.440.1%1st Place
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5.93Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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6.74Yale University3.720.1%1st Place
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7.06Brown University3.640.1%1st Place
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7.59Boston College3.480.1%1st Place
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7.12St. Mary's College of Maryland3.690.1%1st Place
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9.65University of Rhode Island3.050.1%1st Place
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14.16SUNY Maritime College1.870.0%1st Place
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9.3Harvard University3.050.0%1st Place
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10.08U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.820.0%1st Place
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7.88Tufts University3.410.1%1st Place
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12.56University of California at Santa Barbara2.290.0%1st Place
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14.56McGill University1.670.0%1st Place
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11.65Salve Regina University2.450.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Bailey | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 3.7% |
| Jason D'Agostino | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 3.5% |
| Deirdre Lambert | 9.3% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ellis Tonissi | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 8.1% | 6.4% |
| Axel Sly | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| William Macdonald | 12.4% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 11.7% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Kiss | 8.7% | 10.8% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Lucas Adams | 8.4% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Harry Koeppel | 6.6% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 8.9% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.7% |
| Bradley Adam | 9.3% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Caleb Armstrong | 5.4% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 2.1% |
| Arthur Libby | 1.2% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 19.0% | 25.5% |
| Michael Drumm | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 1.2% |
| Max Neubelt | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 4.0% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 3.0% |
| Dan Nickerson | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Simone Staff | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 11.6% | 12.8% | 12.1% |
| Yann Cudennec | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 16.0% | 32.8% |
| John Silvestri | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 7.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.