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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.64+6.26vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University3.95+4.06vs Predicted
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3Eckerd College2.80+7.74vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.69+2.83vs Predicted
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5Stanford University3.44+2.83vs Predicted
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6Tufts University3.41+1.94vs Predicted
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7Harvard University3.05+2.40vs Predicted
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8McGill University1.67+6.39vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College2.59+2.27vs Predicted
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10Dartmouth College3.83-3.48vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.82-0.52vs Predicted
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12Washington College2.84-1.36vs Predicted
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13Yale University3.72-6.38vs Predicted
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14University of Rhode Island3.05-4.86vs Predicted
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15Boston College3.48-7.34vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College1.87-2.02vs Predicted
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17Salve Regina University2.45-5.00vs Predicted
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18University of California at Santa Barbara2.29-5.76vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.26Brown University3.640.1%1st Place
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6.06Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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10.74Eckerd College2.800.0%1st Place
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6.83St. Mary's College of Maryland3.690.1%1st Place
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7.83Stanford University3.440.1%1st Place
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7.94Tufts University3.410.1%1st Place
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9.4Harvard University3.050.0%1st Place
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14.39McGill University1.670.0%1st Place
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11.27Connecticut College2.590.0%1st Place
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6.52Dartmouth College3.830.1%1st Place
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10.48U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.820.0%1st Place
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10.64Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
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6.62Yale University3.720.1%1st Place
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9.14University of Rhode Island3.050.0%1st Place
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7.66Boston College3.480.1%1st Place
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13.98SUNY Maritime College1.870.0%1st Place
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12.0Salve Regina University2.450.0%1st Place
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12.24University of California at Santa Barbara2.290.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Adams | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| William Macdonald | 9.4% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 10.3% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Jason D'Agostino | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 3.1% |
| Bradley Adam | 9.3% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Axel Sly | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 0.2% |
| Dan Nickerson | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 4.4% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Michael Drumm | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 2.0% |
| Yann Cudennec | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 9.4% | 16.6% | 32.8% |
| Ellis Tonissi | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 7.2% | 6.0% |
| Deirdre Lambert | 10.7% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Max Neubelt | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 3.3% |
| Ryan Bailey | 3.8% | 2.6% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 4.1% |
| Joseph Kiss | 9.7% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Caleb Armstrong | 4.6% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 1.9% |
| Harry Koeppel | 6.2% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| Arthur Libby | 1.4% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 11.2% | 14.4% | 25.6% |
| John Silvestri | 2.8% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 11.2% | 9.4% |
| Simone Staff | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 9.1% | 11.0% | 12.0% | 10.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.