← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Yale University3.72+5.96vs Predicted
-
2Roger Williams University3.95+4.09vs Predicted
-
3Brown University3.64+4.28vs Predicted
-
4Tufts University3.41+3.86vs Predicted
-
5Washington College2.84+5.21vs Predicted
-
6Stanford University3.44+1.87vs Predicted
-
7Dartmouth College3.83-0.68vs Predicted
-
8Boston College3.48-0.39vs Predicted
-
9Eckerd College2.80+1.48vs Predicted
-
10SUNY Maritime College1.87+4.05vs Predicted
-
11University of Rhode Island3.05-1.42vs Predicted
-
12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.82-1.30vs Predicted
-
13St. Mary's College of Maryland3.69-6.24vs Predicted
-
14Harvard University3.05-4.92vs Predicted
-
15Connecticut College2.59-3.78vs Predicted
-
16University of California at Santa Barbara2.29-3.46vs Predicted
-
17Salve Regina University2.45-5.01vs Predicted
-
18McGill University1.67-3.59vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
6.96Yale University3.720.1%1st Place
-
6.09Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
-
7.28Brown University3.640.1%1st Place
-
7.86Tufts University3.410.1%1st Place
-
10.21Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
-
7.87Stanford University3.440.1%1st Place
-
6.32Dartmouth College3.830.1%1st Place
-
7.61Boston College3.480.1%1st Place
-
10.48Eckerd College2.800.0%1st Place
-
14.05SUNY Maritime College1.870.0%1st Place
-
9.58University of Rhode Island3.050.0%1st Place
-
10.7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.820.0%1st Place
-
6.76St. Mary's College of Maryland3.690.1%1st Place
-
9.08Harvard University3.050.1%1st Place
-
11.22Connecticut College2.590.0%1st Place
-
12.54University of California at Santa Barbara2.290.0%1st Place
-
11.99Salve Regina University2.450.0%1st Place
-
14.41McGill University1.670.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Kiss | 9.0% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| William Macdonald | 9.9% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 11.0% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Adams | 7.5% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Dan Nickerson | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| Ryan Bailey | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 5.6% | 3.0% |
| Axel Sly | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.8% |
| Deirdre Lambert | 10.3% | 11.3% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Harry Koeppel | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Jason D'Agostino | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 2.5% |
| Arthur Libby | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 10.8% | 17.2% | 26.1% |
| Caleb Armstrong | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 2.5% |
| Max Neubelt | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 4.2% |
| Bradley Adam | 9.5% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Michael Drumm | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 1.7% |
| Ellis Tonissi | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 6.5% |
| Simone Staff | 2.4% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 13.4% | 12.2% |
| John Silvestri | 2.9% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 11.1% | 11.2% | 8.5% |
| Yann Cudennec | 1.8% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 16.8% | 30.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.