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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston College3.48+6.85vs Predicted
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2Harvard University3.05+7.64vs Predicted
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3Eckerd College2.80+7.71vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University3.95+1.85vs Predicted
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5Yale University3.72+1.70vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.82+4.36vs Predicted
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7Washington College2.84+3.26vs Predicted
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8University of Rhode Island3.05+1.38vs Predicted
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9Brown University3.64-1.99vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland3.69-2.93vs Predicted
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11Salve Regina University2.45+1.00vs Predicted
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12Dartmouth College3.83-5.31vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Barbara2.29-0.73vs Predicted
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14Stanford University3.44-6.40vs Predicted
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15Tufts University3.41-7.12vs Predicted
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16Connecticut College2.59-4.66vs Predicted
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17McGill University1.67-2.36vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College1.87-4.26vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.85Boston College3.480.1%1st Place
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9.64Harvard University3.050.0%1st Place
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10.71Eckerd College2.800.0%1st Place
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5.85Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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6.7Yale University3.720.1%1st Place
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10.36U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.820.0%1st Place
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10.26Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
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9.38University of Rhode Island3.050.0%1st Place
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7.01Brown University3.640.1%1st Place
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7.07St. Mary's College of Maryland3.690.1%1st Place
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12.0Salve Regina University2.450.0%1st Place
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6.69Dartmouth College3.830.1%1st Place
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12.27University of California at Santa Barbara2.290.0%1st Place
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7.6Stanford University3.440.1%1st Place
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7.88Tufts University3.410.1%1st Place
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11.34Connecticut College2.590.0%1st Place
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14.64McGill University1.670.0%1st Place
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13.74SUNY Maritime College1.870.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Koeppel | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Michael Drumm | 3.7% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 1.1% |
| Jason D'Agostino | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 3.2% |
| William Macdonald | 11.6% | 12.6% | 11.4% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Joseph Kiss | 9.6% | 11.2% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Max Neubelt | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 3.9% |
| Ryan Bailey | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 3.5% |
| Caleb Armstrong | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 2.6% | 1.6% |
| Lucas Adams | 8.0% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Bradley Adam | 9.2% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| John Silvestri | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 11.1% | 12.5% | 9.4% |
| Deirdre Lambert | 10.3% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Simone Staff | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 9.9% | 11.1% | 11.6% | 12.3% |
| Axel Sly | 6.8% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| Dan Nickerson | 6.6% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.7% |
| Ellis Tonissi | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 7.1% |
| Yann Cudennec | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 10.0% | 17.2% | 33.6% |
| Arthur Libby | 2.0% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 16.9% | 21.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.