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📊 Prediction Accuracy
54.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland0.83+2.93vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College-0.52+4.58vs Predicted
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3Christopher Newport University-0.84+2.25vs Predicted
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4Connecticut College0.52+1.71vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont0.24+0.29vs Predicted
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6North Carolina State University0.01-0.52vs Predicted
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7George Washington University0.47-2.78vs Predicted
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8William and Mary-0.21-1.98vs Predicted
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9Clemson University0.12-4.63vs Predicted
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10Washington College-2.27-0.19vs Predicted
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11University of Maryland-1.87-1.67vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.93St. Mary's College of Maryland0.8317.4%1st Place
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6.58SUNY Maritime College-0.525.5%1st Place
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5.25Christopher Newport University-0.849.9%1st Place
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5.71Connecticut College0.528.8%1st Place
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5.29University of Vermont0.2411.2%1st Place
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5.48North Carolina State University0.018.0%1st Place
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4.22George Washington University0.4716.0%1st Place
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6.02William and Mary-0.218.3%1st Place
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4.37Clemson University0.1212.5%1st Place
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9.81Washington College-2.271.1%1st Place
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9.33University of Maryland-1.871.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lina Carper | 17.4% | 15.9% | 14.7% | 13.6% | 12.8% | 10.4% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Nicole Ostapowicz | 5.5% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 10.9% | 14.8% | 17.8% | 11.0% | 3.4% |
| Laura Smith | 9.9% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 12.2% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 3.6% | 0.9% |
| Izzy Wu-Karr | 8.8% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 10.7% | 10.5% | 11.9% | 12.3% | 12.9% | 5.9% | 1.2% |
| Caitlin Derby | 11.2% | 8.8% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 4.0% | 1.1% |
| Lyla Solway | 8.0% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 11.7% | 11.7% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 4.9% | 0.9% |
| Hayden Clary | 16.0% | 14.7% | 13.9% | 12.9% | 11.5% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Charlotte Stillman | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 12.2% | 15.2% | 12.4% | 7.2% | 2.4% |
| Ashton Loring | 12.5% | 14.3% | 15.4% | 13.5% | 11.0% | 11.3% | 9.6% | 6.8% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Nora Ciak | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 6.1% | 26.3% | 53.1% |
| Emma Retzlaff | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 9.6% | 33.1% | 36.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.