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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.44+6.27vs Predicted
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2Boston College3.73+4.11vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University3.73+3.12vs Predicted
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4Stanford University2.92+5.03vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39+2.29vs Predicted
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6Eckerd College2.69+4.13vs Predicted
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7Harvard University3.43+0.13vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.62+2.25vs Predicted
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9Tufts University3.47-2.14vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island2.95-0.74vs Predicted
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11Brown University3.27-3.11vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College2.14+0.51vs Predicted
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13Washington College1.81+0.18vs Predicted
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14Yale University3.25-6.44vs Predicted
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15University of California at Santa Barbara2.49-4.20vs Predicted
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16Salve Regina University2.08-3.45vs Predicted
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17Connecticut College2.34-5.45vs Predicted
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18McGill University1.00-2.50vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.27Dartmouth College3.440.1%1st Place
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6.11Boston College3.730.1%1st Place
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6.12Roger Williams University3.730.1%1st Place
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9.03Stanford University2.920.1%1st Place
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7.29U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.1%1st Place
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10.13Eckerd College2.690.0%1st Place
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7.13Harvard University3.430.1%1st Place
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10.25St. Mary's College of Maryland2.620.0%1st Place
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6.86Tufts University3.470.1%1st Place
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9.26University of Rhode Island2.950.1%1st Place
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7.89Brown University3.270.1%1st Place
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12.51SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
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13.18Washington College1.810.0%1st Place
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7.56Yale University3.250.1%1st Place
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10.8University of California at Santa Barbara2.490.0%1st Place
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12.55Salve Regina University2.080.0%1st Place
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11.55Connecticut College2.340.0%1st Place
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15.5McGill University1.000.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin MURPHY | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Charles Sinks | 8.8% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Connor Corgard | 11.2% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Scott Buckstaff | 5.5% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 1.6% |
| Charles Lomax | 8.1% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Alejandro Monllor | 4.3% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 3.1% |
| Marek Zaleski | 7.8% | 9.5% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| Thomas Galster | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 5.0% | 2.4% |
| Scott Barbano | 8.6% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Matthew Coughlin | 6.2% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 1.0% |
| Nathan Allman | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| Peter Maes | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 12.7% | 13.9% | 9.7% |
| Eleanor Conroy | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 11.6% | 18.2% | 14.7% |
| Malcolm Lamphere | 6.9% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 9.1% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Cobi Allen | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 3.6% |
| Shannon Killian | 2.6% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 12.1% | 13.6% | 9.9% |
| Cooper Nefsky | 3.5% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 8.5% | 6.0% |
| Markus Suorsa | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 15.9% | 46.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.