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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05+5.56vs Predicted
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2Boston College3.35+3.51vs Predicted
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3Stanford University3.63+1.63vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University2.76+3.43vs Predicted
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5College of Charleston2.93+1.84vs Predicted
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6George Washington University1.47+6.37vs Predicted
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7Brown University3.01-0.48vs Predicted
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8University of Minnesota1.18+5.20vs Predicted
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9University of South Florida2.24+0.39vs Predicted
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10Yale University2.67-1.98vs Predicted
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11Fordham University1.72+0.58vs Predicted
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12Tufts University2.32-2.55vs Predicted
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13Cornell University1.97-2.66vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.92-3.60vs Predicted
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15U. S. Naval Academy2.33-5.95vs Predicted
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16Eckerd College1.50-3.68vs Predicted
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17Old Dominion University2.03-6.67vs Predicted
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18Middlebury College-0.82-0.93vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.56St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.1%1st Place
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5.51Boston College3.350.1%1st Place
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4.63Stanford University3.630.2%1st Place
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7.43Georgetown University2.760.1%1st Place
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6.84College of Charleston2.930.1%1st Place
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12.37George Washington University1.470.0%1st Place
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6.52Brown University3.010.1%1st Place
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13.2University of Minnesota1.180.0%1st Place
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9.39University of South Florida2.240.0%1st Place
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8.02Yale University2.670.1%1st Place
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11.58Fordham University1.720.0%1st Place
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9.45Tufts University2.320.0%1st Place
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10.34Cornell University1.970.0%1st Place
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10.4Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.920.0%1st Place
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9.05U. S. Naval Academy2.330.0%1st Place
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12.32Eckerd College1.500.0%1st Place
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10.33Old Dominion University2.030.0%1st Place
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17.07Middlebury College-0.820.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carolyn Smith | 9.2% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Allyson Donahue | 9.5% | 12.2% | 13.8% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lily Katz | 15.3% | 15.1% | 12.8% | 13.3% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rose Edwards | 7.8% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Kayla Gibson | 8.8% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Madison Oleson | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 11.2% | 12.1% | 15.0% | 4.8% |
| Johanna Kincaid | 9.5% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Isabella Hamilton | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 14.4% | 23.7% | 6.2% |
| Alison Knoles | 3.9% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 0.2% |
| Katharina (KB) Knapp | 7.7% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Johanna Monro | 3.2% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 11.2% | 11.5% | 10.7% | 2.4% |
| Kate Klement | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 3.3% | 0.5% |
| Quinn Howes | 3.3% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 4.7% | 1.3% |
| Christine Moloney | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 1.2% |
| Hannah Hughes | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 0.1% |
| Anna Huebschmann | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 9.6% | 11.4% | 11.3% | 15.6% | 3.3% |
| Sarah Streater | 3.9% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 5.1% | 0.9% |
| Margaret Weber | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 3.6% | 7.0% | 78.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.