← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
45.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1SUNY Maritime College-0.52+5.16vs Predicted
-
2Clemson University0.12+2.13vs Predicted
-
3North Carolina State University0.01+2.09vs Predicted
-
4Christopher Newport University-0.84+0.89vs Predicted
-
5University of Vermont0.24-0.01vs Predicted
-
6St. Mary's College of Maryland0.83-2.35vs Predicted
-
7George Washington University0.47-3.04vs Predicted
-
8Connecticut College0.52-2.69vs Predicted
-
9University of Maryland-1.87-0.10vs Predicted
-
10William and Mary-2.57-0.35vs Predicted
-
11Washington College-2.27-1.73vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
6.16SUNY Maritime College-0.525.5%1st Place
-
4.13Clemson University0.1215.8%1st Place
-
5.09North Carolina State University0.0110.4%1st Place
-
4.89Christopher Newport University-0.8411.2%1st Place
-
4.99University of Vermont0.249.6%1st Place
-
3.65St. Mary's College of Maryland0.8319.1%1st Place
-
3.96George Washington University0.4716.0%1st Place
-
5.31Connecticut College0.528.5%1st Place
-
8.9University of Maryland-1.871.7%1st Place
-
9.65William and Mary-2.571.2%1st Place
-
9.27Washington College-2.270.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nicole Ostapowicz | 5.5% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 13.7% | 19.4% | 14.1% | 5.0% | 1.1% |
Ashton Loring | 15.8% | 14.2% | 15.1% | 12.2% | 12.6% | 12.3% | 8.6% | 6.0% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
Lyla Solway | 10.4% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 12.2% | 12.0% | 13.8% | 11.9% | 6.6% | 2.1% | 0.1% |
Laura Smith | 11.2% | 10.3% | 12.3% | 12.0% | 11.3% | 12.4% | 11.1% | 11.7% | 6.0% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
Caitlin Derby | 9.6% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 11.9% | 12.6% | 13.5% | 12.4% | 10.7% | 5.5% | 2.1% | 0.2% |
Lina Carper | 19.1% | 18.2% | 14.4% | 14.9% | 12.8% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 3.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
Hayden Clary | 16.0% | 15.2% | 16.2% | 14.6% | 12.2% | 10.3% | 7.8% | 4.7% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
Izzy Wu-Karr | 8.5% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 11.2% | 11.5% | 13.2% | 14.0% | 13.2% | 7.1% | 2.4% | 0.1% |
Emma Retzlaff | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 5.2% | 7.9% | 24.1% | 29.7% | 20.8% |
Kinsey Gore | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 12.2% | 25.1% | 46.5% |
Nora Ciak | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 6.2% | 18.5% | 30.4% | 30.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.