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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.33+8.04vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.63+2.54vs Predicted
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3College of Charleston2.93+3.77vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University2.74+3.30vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05+1.19vs Predicted
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6Boston College3.35-0.75vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.92+3.45vs Predicted
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8University of South Florida2.24+1.12vs Predicted
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9Yale University2.67-1.47vs Predicted
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10Cornell University1.97+0.47vs Predicted
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11University of Minnesota1.18+2.10vs Predicted
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12George Washington University1.47+0.35vs Predicted
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13Brown University3.01-6.74vs Predicted
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14University of Wisconsin1.34-1.79vs Predicted
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15Fordham University1.72-3.82vs Predicted
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16Eckerd College1.50-3.91vs Predicted
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17Old Dominion University2.03-6.88vs Predicted
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18Middlebury College-0.82-0.98vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.04U. S. Naval Academy2.330.0%1st Place
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4.54Stanford University3.630.1%1st Place
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6.77College of Charleston2.930.1%1st Place
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7.3Georgetown University2.740.1%1st Place
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6.19St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.1%1st Place
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5.25Boston College3.350.1%1st Place
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10.45Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.920.0%1st Place
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9.12University of South Florida2.240.0%1st Place
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7.53Yale University2.670.1%1st Place
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10.47Cornell University1.970.0%1st Place
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13.1University of Minnesota1.180.0%1st Place
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12.35George Washington University1.470.0%1st Place
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6.26Brown University3.010.1%1st Place
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12.21University of Wisconsin1.340.0%1st Place
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11.18Fordham University1.720.0%1st Place
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12.09Eckerd College1.500.0%1st Place
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10.12Old Dominion University2.030.0%1st Place
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17.02Middlebury College-0.820.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hannah Hughes | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 2.4% | 0.1% |
| Lily Katz | 13.3% | 17.4% | 13.9% | 12.9% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kayla Gibson | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Mary Kate Mezzetti | 7.2% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Carolyn Smith | 11.0% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Allyson Donahue | 13.7% | 11.5% | 12.1% | 11.6% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christine Moloney | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 1.0% |
| Alison Knoles | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 0.0% |
| Katharina (KB) Knapp | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 9.4% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Quinn Howes | 3.9% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 10.9% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 4.7% | 0.5% |
| Isabella Hamilton | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 11.1% | 13.1% | 19.9% | 6.6% |
| Madison Oleson | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 12.6% | 15.2% | 4.6% |
| Johanna Kincaid | 10.0% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Leslie Poole | 2.4% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 10.5% | 13.4% | 14.8% | 3.8% |
| Johanna Monro | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 7.6% | 2.1% |
| Anna Huebschmann | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 11.4% | 11.9% | 12.5% | 3.3% |
| Sarah Streater | 4.2% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 4.7% | 0.4% |
| Margaret Weber | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 8.0% | 77.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.