Race 4B

lake-champlain-open

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

28.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Andrew Kurzrok 7.6% 9.4% 10.9% 8.8% 9.4% 9.3% 9.2% 8.7% 7.3% 6.4% 5.3% 4.5% 2.6% 0.6%
Christopher Price 12.0% 10.5% 10.2% 10.9% 8.8% 10.4% 9.2% 8.7% 7.0% 4.8% 3.5% 2.8% 0.9% 0.3%
Hunter Mumma 8.8% 8.9% 7.9% 8.9% 7.8% 8.8% 9.9% 8.4% 8.0% 9.2% 7.0% 4.4% 1.5% 0.5%
Rian Bareuther 8.2% 10.6% 10.3% 9.9% 10.2% 9.8% 8.6% 7.8% 7.8% 7.0% 5.4% 2.7% 1.3% 0.4%
Maarten Eenkema Van Dijk 12.6% 12.5% 14.7% 11.2% 10.6% 9.0% 8.1% 6.5% 6.9% 3.6% 2.4% 1.1% 0.7% 0.1%
Andrew Moakes 7.1% 6.4% 7.0% 8.2% 8.3% 9.2% 8.0% 8.7% 9.3% 8.7% 8.6% 6.2% 3.3% 1.0%
Trevor Burd 14.2% 13.6% 11.9% 10.3% 10.4% 8.3% 8.4% 7.7% 5.8% 4.6% 3.3% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0%
James Altreuter 9.0% 9.7% 8.1% 8.9% 9.6% 7.4% 8.0% 9.6% 7.9% 7.5% 6.6% 4.3% 3.1% 0.3%
Justin Marks 4.0% 2.7% 2.5% 3.6% 3.8% 4.5% 4.3% 5.8% 7.7% 10.9% 13.9% 13.3% 15.1% 7.9%
Nicholas Dragone 3.1% 3.7% 2.7% 3.3% 5.2% 7.1% 6.0% 6.0% 9.0% 9.7% 10.7% 14.9% 11.3% 7.3%
Billy Rohman 8.2% 7.3% 8.6% 8.4% 9.6% 8.2% 9.2% 9.0% 8.5% 7.8% 5.9% 5.3% 3.3% 0.7%
Edward Moan 2.1% 1.8% 2.2% 2.6% 2.5% 3.1% 3.6% 5.1% 6.6% 8.4% 11.6% 14.7% 18.0% 17.7%
Natalie Fohl 1.3% 1.0% 0.9% 1.3% 1.3% 1.8% 1.9% 2.1% 2.4% 5.1% 5.3% 10.0% 16.4% 49.2%
Tyler Nemsdale 1.8% 1.9% 2.1% 3.7% 2.5% 3.1% 5.6% 5.9% 5.8% 6.3% 10.5% 14.8% 22.0% 14.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.