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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University2.79+3.78vs Predicted
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2Tufts University2.23+4.25vs Predicted
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3Brown University2.28+3.15vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University2.97+0.38vs Predicted
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5Tufts University3.38-1.42vs Predicted
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6Northeastern University2.05+0.89vs Predicted
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7University of Rhode Island2.52-1.48vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University1.97-0.93vs Predicted
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9Tufts University2.33-2.97vs Predicted
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10Salve Regina University1.51-1.61vs Predicted
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11Yale University0.62-0.36vs Predicted
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12University of Connecticut-0.18+0.45vs Predicted
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14McGill University0.07-2.10vs Predicted
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15Wesleyan University-0.24-2.61vs Predicted
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16University of New Hampshire-1.06-2.43vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.78Brown University2.790.1%1st Place
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6.25Tufts University2.230.1%1st Place
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6.15Brown University2.280.1%1st Place
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4.38Roger Williams University2.970.2%1st Place
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3.58Tufts University3.380.2%1st Place
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6.89Northeastern University2.050.1%1st Place
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5.52University of Rhode Island2.520.1%1st Place
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7.07Roger Williams University1.970.1%1st Place
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6.03Tufts University2.330.1%1st Place
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8.39Salve Regina University1.510.0%1st Place
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10.64Yale University0.620.0%1st Place
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12.45University of Connecticut-0.180.0%1st Place
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11.9McGill University0.070.0%1st Place
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12.39Wesleyan University-0.240.0%1st Place
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13.57University of New Hampshire-1.060.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Alexander | 13.7% | 13.1% | 12.9% | 11.1% | 11.8% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Molly Pleskus | 6.7% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 6.0% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Macklin Fluehr | 7.1% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 11.3% | 10.3% | 11.4% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kendal Richardson | 15.5% | 15.1% | 14.2% | 11.5% | 11.1% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Beatty | 21.4% | 18.7% | 15.6% | 14.2% | 10.5% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Victoria McGruer | 5.2% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 12.6% | 11.1% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Lucy Clara Jones | 10.1% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 11.0% | 10.1% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Riley Eger | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 10.8% | 11.7% | 11.2% | 10.0% | 4.8% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Kate Shaner | 7.4% | 7.2% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 11.9% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Genevieve Marquardt | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 10.6% | 11.5% | 14.3% | 13.3% | 9.0% | 5.0% | 2.3% | 0.4% |
| Henry Lewis | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 10.3% | 15.2% | 17.6% | 15.6% | 10.3% | 4.8% |
| Shane Baker | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 5.0% | 8.2% | 14.5% | 22.6% | 23.0% | 16.9% |
| Arthur Olivenstein | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 10.2% | 18.5% | 19.8% | 19.3% | 11.8% |
| Abe Kipnis | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 8.1% | 15.2% | 20.8% | 22.6% | 17.7% |
| Nicole Plona | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 3.5% | 8.0% | 11.0% | 21.2% | 48.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.