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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University3.38+2.44vs Predicted
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2Brown University2.79+2.72vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University1.97+4.00vs Predicted
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4Tufts University2.23+2.32vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University2.97-0.53vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island2.52-0.44vs Predicted
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7Salve Regina University1.51+1.30vs Predicted
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8Brown University2.28-1.78vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University2.05-2.15vs Predicted
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10Tufts University2.33-3.82vs Predicted
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11McGill University0.07+0.80vs Predicted
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12Yale University0.62-1.21vs Predicted
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13Wesleyan University-0.24-0.49vs Predicted
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15University of Connecticut-0.18-2.78vs Predicted
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16University of New Hampshire-1.06-2.38vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.44Tufts University3.380.2%1st Place
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4.72Brown University2.790.1%1st Place
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7.0Roger Williams University1.970.1%1st Place
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6.32Tufts University2.230.1%1st Place
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4.47Roger Williams University2.970.1%1st Place
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5.56University of Rhode Island2.520.1%1st Place
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8.3Salve Regina University1.510.0%1st Place
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6.22Brown University2.280.1%1st Place
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6.85Northeastern University2.050.1%1st Place
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6.18Tufts University2.330.1%1st Place
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11.8McGill University0.070.0%1st Place
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10.79Yale University0.620.0%1st Place
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12.51Wesleyan University-0.240.0%1st Place
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12.22University of Connecticut-0.180.0%1st Place
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13.62University of New Hampshire-1.060.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Beatty | 24.0% | 19.7% | 16.5% | 11.5% | 9.5% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam Alexander | 12.0% | 15.0% | 12.6% | 12.4% | 11.0% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Riley Eger | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 12.6% | 10.9% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Molly Pleskus | 7.1% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 3.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Kendal Richardson | 15.0% | 14.1% | 13.0% | 11.9% | 12.5% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lucy Clara Jones | 7.8% | 11.0% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 11.8% | 12.5% | 10.4% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Genevieve Marquardt | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 11.7% | 14.2% | 13.1% | 9.4% | 5.5% | 1.2% | 0.6% |
| Macklin Fluehr | 8.2% | 6.4% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 5.8% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Victoria McGruer | 5.6% | 5.1% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 11.8% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Kate Shaner | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 5.3% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Arthur Olivenstein | 1.0% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 6.6% | 10.5% | 15.6% | 20.5% | 19.0% | 11.9% |
| Henry Lewis | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 14.9% | 19.9% | 18.3% | 10.8% | 2.7% |
| Abe Kipnis | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 7.7% | 13.5% | 20.1% | 24.1% | 19.5% |
| Shane Baker | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 5.3% | 10.6% | 15.0% | 17.9% | 24.3% | 14.9% |
| Nicole Plona | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 6.5% | 11.8% | 19.6% | 50.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.