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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University3.38+2.46vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University1.97+4.94vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island2.52+2.42vs Predicted
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4Tufts University2.33+2.06vs Predicted
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5Northeastern University2.05+1.92vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University2.97-1.64vs Predicted
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7Brown University2.79-2.15vs Predicted
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8Salve Regina University1.51+0.38vs Predicted
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9Tufts University2.23-2.67vs Predicted
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10Brown University2.28-3.66vs Predicted
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11University of New Hampshire-1.06+2.68vs Predicted
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12Yale University0.62-1.21vs Predicted
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13University of Connecticut-0.18-0.62vs Predicted
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15McGill University0.07-3.26vs Predicted
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16Wesleyan University-0.24-3.65vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.46Tufts University3.380.2%1st Place
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6.94Roger Williams University1.970.0%1st Place
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5.42University of Rhode Island2.520.1%1st Place
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6.06Tufts University2.330.1%1st Place
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6.92Northeastern University2.050.1%1st Place
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4.36Roger Williams University2.970.1%1st Place
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4.85Brown University2.790.1%1st Place
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8.38Salve Regina University1.510.0%1st Place
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6.33Tufts University2.230.1%1st Place
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6.34Brown University2.280.1%1st Place
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13.68University of New Hampshire-1.060.0%1st Place
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10.79Yale University0.620.0%1st Place
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12.38University of Connecticut-0.180.0%1st Place
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11.74McGill University0.070.0%1st Place
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12.35Wesleyan University-0.240.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Beatty | 23.5% | 21.5% | 13.9% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Riley Eger | 4.3% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 11.6% | 10.5% | 7.7% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Lucy Clara Jones | 10.7% | 8.9% | 11.2% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 11.4% | 10.5% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kate Shaner | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 11.0% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 5.6% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Victoria McGruer | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 12.0% | 11.2% | 8.6% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Kendal Richardson | 13.3% | 15.4% | 14.9% | 13.3% | 12.6% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam Alexander | 13.1% | 11.9% | 13.0% | 11.6% | 11.4% | 11.2% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Genevieve Marquardt | 3.7% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 11.0% | 14.3% | 14.8% | 9.5% | 5.2% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Molly Pleskus | 6.7% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Macklin Fluehr | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 12.2% | 8.0% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Nicole Plona | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 8.1% | 11.1% | 17.9% | 52.7% |
| Henry Lewis | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 9.8% | 15.5% | 19.8% | 16.2% | 10.9% | 3.3% |
| Shane Baker | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 14.6% | 21.1% | 24.0% | 16.9% |
| Arthur Olivenstein | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 11.6% | 16.8% | 18.8% | 21.3% | 8.6% |
| Abe Kipnis | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 9.1% | 13.1% | 20.6% | 23.2% | 18.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.